Newspoll, Pollytrack, Satisfaction Ratings and the Greens.
Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 15, 2008
Another Newspoll Tuesday, another bunch of charts. Todays poll has the TPP the same as last time at 55/44 with the ALP and the Coalition both down 1% to 43% and 38% respectively in the primary vote.
First up, we’ll take a look at where Pollytrack stands at the moment on both primaries and TPPs. This is the three pollster rolling aggregation weighted by sample size of Morgan Phone Polls, ACN and Newspoll. Current MoE from sampling error stands at 1.56% from a sample size of 3931.
Next up, the bastard cousin of Pollytrack, Loess Allpolls for primaries and TPP. This runs a Loess regression through every poll of those three pollsters, including Morgan Face to Face.
Next up, let us have a little squiz at how the Newspoll satisfaction ratings have been playing out this year.
That kind of speaks for itself.
And finally, we always follow the ALP and the Coalition, but this time it might be worth adding the Greens to this to see how their support levels have been changing over time. Newspoll goes back to 1997 for the Greens, so we’ll just start from there. Note, I made this yesterday before todays Newpsoll came out. The greens are currently on 11% in todays poll.
Who else thinks something dodgy was going on in the sampling for the Greens to jump from around 4% in mid to late 2007 to 12% last month?
The alternative is that many Greens voters played tootsie with Labor last year but couldnt quite bring themselves to actually go through with it on the primary vote, resorting to a kind of preferential love instead.
In comments, Sir Ian Upton, apart from cracking a funny, made a very good point about the Greens vote in regard to Gippsland.
So let’s look at the Greens vote at the last election in terms of which kinds of seats the Greens do better or worse in. We’ll use the AEC socio-demographic seat categories here of Inner Metro, Outer Metro, Provincial and Rural.
If we turn those into dummy variables and run a regression using the Greens primary vote at the last election, by seat, and those variables – we get the following results.
We didn’t include the Inner Metro seats as a variable as that’s our baseline. So what this tells us is that in Inner Metro seats the Greens got an average of 9.79% of the vote (the Constant C value for this regression).
In Outer Metro seats the average vote is 2.32% less than the Inner Metro vote, in the Provincial seats the vote was on average 1.81% less than the Inner Metro Green vote, and in Rural seats the Greens scored an average of 3.58% less than their Inner Metro seats.
If we look at Gippsland, at the election the Greens scored 5.54% of the vote, or 4.25% less than their Inner Metro vote which is around what we would have expected.
If we run that regression again, but this time just against the dummy variable of the Rural seats, we get a result that tells us the Green vote in Rural electorates is 2.29% below their average national vote.
During the recent by-election, the Greens scored 7.04% of the vote which, ignoring any by-election dynamics for a second, would suggest the current Greens national polling should be around the 9-10% mark (7.04% +2.29% ) to be consistent with the Gippsland result.
And that’s about where it is at the moment. So it would seem that the Greens have probably had a bit of a boost in their vote since the election, which is coming out in the polling.