Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Pollytrack week ending July 19

Posted by Possum Comitatus on July 21, 2008

With todays ACNielsen out showing an ALP TPP lead of 54/46 coming off the back of primaries running 43/40 the same way, we have the numbers to crunch where the Pollytrack was sitting at the end of last week. (WordPress was having a bit of a hiccup when I posted this and some of the images weren’t showing – it’s only a temporary problem)

The ALP primary vote is slowly but surely grinding down, mostly going to third parties and mostly to the Greens at that, with a small and jittery growth in the Coalition primary vote over time. Since we started the series in the week ending May 17th, the ALP Primary has dropped from 46.6 % down to 43.9% while the Coalition has lifted from 37.4 % to 38.9 %. Currently the minimum MoE on this baby sits at 1.56%.

The two party preferred chart shows a similar but slightly less dramatic pattern with the ALP TPP having reduced from 57.2 % down to 55% where it sits today.

Moving along to the Loess Allpolls charts, where we throw in every poll by the three major pollsters and run a local regression through it as the line of best fit we get:

The Pollytrack and Loess Allpolls series are tracking each other almost identically with the current values of the regression lines being identical to those of the Pollytrack series to 1 decimal place – except for the Coalition primary vote where the regression line has it on 38.4 % rather than the 39.6 % of Pollytrack.

UPDATE:

The US Election page has been updated for the current Intrade data. This is where the State by State outlook stands at the moment.

And this spiffy toy for the US election is worth a play with (thanks to EC for the heads up)

12 Responses to “Pollytrack week ending July 19”

  1. Greensborough Growler said

    It’s the dreaded stand stilling.

  2. Sir John said

    Allpolls charts don’t seem to include the latest ACNielsen? Or am i reading it wrong..

  3. Possum Comitatus said

    Sir John – oops.

    It would probably help with these things if I extended the charts to the right dates!:mrgreen:

    All fixed up.

    Ta for that.

  4. Greeensborough Growler said

    Remind me Possum, do you include Morgan data in your charts?

  5. Possum Comitatus said

    Greeny,
    Only Morgan phone polls are in Pollytrack – I only do phone polls for that. In the Loess Allpolls series I include the Morgan face to face because the regression is adaptive to outliers (although I haven’t included todays Morgan face to face, I’ll do that later in the week).

  6. Greeensborough Growler said

    Possum,

    Thanks for that. Just wondering if you’ve ever considered getting gary morgan or one/all the other pollsters to post something on the Possum Box about polls, methodolgy and all that. Gary is a notorious self promoter but he is passionate about polling and has been doing polls all his life. The advantage for him is he gets to speak to an audience of psepholgy oriented seminarians. I’m sure if you rang and asked him he would be interested. Just a thought.

  7. Ningaui said

    Articles in the Anti-GG yesterday and today, including one by the Not-Quite-Winnie-the-Pooh Milne, re-proclaiming The Great Narrowing. The re-proclamations are mainly based on by-election result extrapolations which show interesting statistical courage. The Anti-GG is also having a go at Lazarating The Great Equivocator while Blind Eye is on holiday. For balance, they are running a bit of a campaign against eco-hysterics; not sure if they mean panicked economic investors and assorted asset bubble prickers or demented greenie climate change zealots. They don’t like the Cap-in-Hand Carbon Trading Scheme very much either. Meanwhile Gen’l Sheridan has self-proclaimed his acolytical status with Pell; sort of related to foreign affairs.

  8. helen mc said

    Hello Possum
    boy that’s some sorta wild family you belong to lol

    “And at a Brisbane shopping centre, an elderly lady in a wheelchair urged him (Rudd) to touch her breast where her pet marsupial was sitting.
    “A terrified sugar glider felt as if it had been somehow trapped in a ravine somewhere in the Himalayas,” Mr Rudd told the audience assembled for the launch.”
    http://news.theage.com.au/national/rudd-launches-book-on-kevin07-campaign-20080722-3j3u.html

  9. Possum Comitatus said

    Helen, we try not to talk about that side of the family🙂

  10. Jacques said

    Hello,
    Every time I see one of those state-by-state graphs for the US elections I always wonder if anyone has done one up with each state modified so that its area is proportionate its number of Electoral College votes – which would seem to me to actually give a much better idea of how things stand. Obviously it would be just about impossible (if not actually) to keep the shapes of the states, but I don’t think that matters so much, they could just be more regular abstractions as long as they end up in more or less correct reletive to the position of other states.

    As it stands the Republicans always look like they’ve got it made by area because of the tiny eastern states…

    Jacques.

  11. Possum Comitatus said

    Jacques – you’re after an Electoral College Cartogram.

    Electoral-vote.com has one with the latest polls overlaid.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Carto/Jul28-c.html

  12. Larry Buttrose said

    As Brenda appears about to be tapped on the shoulder, I would suggest the nickname “Elvis” for Costello, as he simply refuses to leave the building.

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