US Election Update – August Edition
Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 4, 2008
Just a quick roundup of all the Intrade charts fit to print on the current state of the US Election according to the Intrade markets.
Below, in order, the current Electoral College Votes projected by Intrade for the Democrats, the headline “Democrat as President” market probability and the EV Probability Sum (which is the expected value of electoral college votes, where each state has its college votes multiplied by that States win probability and where they’re all summed up to give us the number)
States holding Democrat are:
CA NY IL PA OH MI NJ MA WA MD MN WI CO CT IA OR NM HI ME NH RI DE DC VT VA NV
Next up is the current Democrat win probabilities for each State as well as how those win probabilities have changed over the last week.
Next up is the 100K simulation of electoral college votes for the Democrats which, because of you fine folks out there, adjusts for state non-independence.
Next up is a tracking of the mean, median and modal values of those simulations since April, as well as a comparison between the headline market Democrat win probability and the simulated Democrat win probability (important to see if the State simulated markets are a leading indicator of the headline market -letting us know if the State markets collectively contain more information)
And finally, current State probabilities as a map, with the electoral college votes of each state given as well.