Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

US Election Update – August Edition

Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 4, 2008

Just a quick roundup of all the Intrade charts fit to print on the current state of the US Election according to the Intrade markets.

Below, in order, the current Electoral College Votes projected by Intrade for the Democrats, the headline “Democrat as President” market probability and the EV Probability Sum (which is the expected value of electoral college votes, where each state has its college votes multiplied by that States win probability and where they’re all summed up to give us the number)

States holding Democrat are:

CA NY IL PA OH MI NJ MA WA MD MN WI CO CT IA OR NM HI ME NH RI DE DC VT VA NV

Next up is the current Democrat win probabilities for each State as well as how those win probabilities have changed over the last week.

Next up is the 100K simulation of electoral college votes for the Democrats which, because of you fine folks out there, adjusts for state non-independence.

Next up is a tracking of the mean, median and modal values of those simulations since April, as well as a comparison between the headline market Democrat win probability and the simulated Democrat win probability (important to see if the State simulated markets are a leading indicator of the headline market -letting us know if the State markets collectively contain more information)

And finally, current State probabilities as a map, with the electoral college votes of each state given as well.

8 Responses to “US Election Update – August Edition”

  1. Yaz said

    Does anyone have any thoughts on why Hawaii is so strongly democratic? Most of the rest are pretty obvious (DC, New York etc.) but Hawaii is such a large military contingent, I assumed this would have more of an effect.

  2. Aristotle said

    Betting odds have McCain shortening from around 4.0 to around 3.2. With Obama at around 1.35.

    http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/16437/17560/33153/USA

  3. Enemy Combatant said

    If these figures reinforce in Team Obi’s minds that they have a fight on their hands then that’s a good thing because unless they have been disillusioned by Obi’s triangulating, his grass/netroots will ramp up their efforts. An unexpected jolt now is better that a late October Surprise. The cantering is done, from the Conventions onwards it will be a flat out, no holds barred, bare-knuckle sprint for the finish line.

    I don’t believe Obama’s support among his younger supporters is flowing into the polls because relatively few of them have land lines. This demograhic which contains a huge pool of formerly unregistered voters, is therefore continually under-represented in telephone polls.

  4. Kakuru said

    So Obama is rated at a better chance of carrying either Colorado or Virginia than Florida…? Interesting.

    Oh, Hawaii supports a large minority population (esp. indigenous/Polynesian, Filipino) as well as a great many lefties who moved there from the mainland. Hence it’s a deep blue state.

  5. 2 tanners said

    I note the difference between the overall presidential market and the simulated state markets. Looks like a pretty nice arbitrage opportunity there. Same thing happened in Australia in the last elections.

  6. lomlate said

    I remember in the 06 election CNN was occasionally using a US map that had been distorted to represent electoral votes instead of geographical size. Have you considered using these diagrams in your posts instead of the geographic ones possum? They make it a lot easier to figure out what the state by state means.

  7. Nate Silver of 538 on Keith Olbermann’s Countdown. Nate’s a great talker; mind like a steel-trap but he needs to get more sleep.
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/538-on-countdown.html

  8. Possum Comitatus said

    Lomlate – that’s a cartogram you’re after. I have considered using one if I could find a pre-built ESRI shapefile for one that I could use with my GIS software (so I dont have to colour the maps in by hand, but automate it like I do with the current map).

    Ta for the heads up Ecky – poor bloke looked a bit ragged.

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