Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

ACNielsen and Pollytrack Expanded

Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 18, 2008

The new ACN poll is out today with the ALP steady and Coalition down 1 in the primaries for a 43/39 split leading to the ALP up 1 for a 55/45 two party preferred headline number.

Plugging this into our Pollytrack series – the rolling 3 phone pollster average weighted by sample size – we get (just click on the charts to expand them):

Pollytrack currently has the primaries coming in at 45/39.2 to the ALP with the two party preferred running 55.9/44.1 the same way.

I’ve added two new charts to Pollytrack.The first is the Primary Vote Swing which shows how far the primary vote of each party has changed since the last election while the second shows the two party preferred swing since the last election as well as how many seats that would change according to a uniform swing on the national pendulum.

As always we have our all pollster loess regression series:

And finally, a look at how the ALP and Coalition have been traveling with all the pollsters this year.

4 Responses to “ACNielsen and Pollytrack Expanded”

  1. robertbe said

    Which reminds me to ask many months later, did we ever come to a conclusion as to why the last Nielson before the election was so far off?

  2. Harry "Snapper" Organs said

    Umm. that’s looking suspiciously like a (shudder) Widening. I do love the preoccupation with changing Leaders of the Opposition, as if that’s going to make any difference, in the MSM and the polling. Marsupial fluff.

  3. David Richards said

    Snapper – Would anyone WANT to be leader of such a motley crew of brigands?

  4. Possum Comitatus said

    Robert – Nielsen probably had some systemic bias in their demographic weighting last year which drove them to be a few points out. It probably wasnt a rogue poll as their final phone poll matched perfectly with their final online poll and both polls had over 1400 respondents each (from memory), which suggests something more than random chance produced the problem.

    All pollsters regularly update their methodology and weighting, especially after elections. ACN is an extremely professional outfit, they would have done that very thing.

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