NSW Newspoll – Constipation more popular than the ALP
Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 19, 2008
Newspoll has released their bi-monthly NSW poll via The Oz – worth having a squiz at.
Pick a chart, any chart – from voting intention, better premier, satisfaction ratings, net satisfaction ratings – any chart at all really and the story is the same; a government that stayed one election too long. The long term trends are about as awful as they get and it looks like the ALP TPP vote is just about to collapse.
What’s interesting here is that an election win is usually a medium term circuit breaker – after an incumbent retains government, the polls usually spike for 12 months or so before slowly eroding over the next few years as the political grind catches up with the government. But with the last NSW election, any spike Iemma may have achieved had not only washed out of the system within 9 months, but all of the metrics bar the Two Party Preferred vote estimates had collapsed.
Unless the NSW government defies 20 years of national polling history – an extremely unlikely event – the TPP will follow the qualitative metrics long term trend down, for it nearly always does.
If you ever wanted to see what the metrics of a textbook case of an untenable government leader looks like, I give to you Exhibit A – just click on them to expand.
The last one is the killer. It shows the relationship between Net Satisfaction and Net Satisfaction calculated with the undecideds removed. The pink line crossed the red line while the undecideds simultaneously decreased in number – that spells bad news.
The undecideds have broken against Iemma – they wont be coming back.
To give you another example of how this relationship has played out, the same thing happened to Nelson federally:
It’s why he’s untenable as well. So the question is whether NSW ALP has the plums to move against a Premier that can only be elected if the NSW Leader of the Opposition is, as the yank saying goes, found with a dead girl or a live boy.
But even then, she’d be an even bet.
The other question is whether this is driven by public perceptions of ineffective leadership or by a broader public perception of an ineffective NSW Labor government as a whole (or worst of all, both). If it’s the former, there’s room for improvement with a new leader, if it’s the latter then the next few years will be a pathetic spectacle of deckchair rearrangement.
Worth mentioning as well is the misleading nature of the two party preferred vote here. Because NSW has optional preferential voting, preference flows wont be as certain as we would expect them to be, say, Federally. The other problem is that with the ALP primary in the low 30’s, there’s a chance of the Greens outpolling the ALP in a few inner city seats as well as the possibility of Independents doing the same elsewhere – the very notion of TPP becomes a little shabby as a true indicator of political reality with such low ALP primary vote numbers.
With the ALP in the low 30s and the Coalition around 40 – that leaves just under 30% to be picked up by non-majors. But, as always, these things dont happen smoothly -the third party vote will be lumpy; low in some seats, but higher in others to make up the average, and probably high enough in some places to knock the ALP out of second spot at the moment, making the TPP a dubious metric.