Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Do State governments suffer with Federal Governments of the same party?

Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 20, 2008

It’s probably an unanswerable question – sometimes they would seem to, other times not. But the difficulty with measuring it statistically is that you need to go so far back into the past with the data (simply to get enough observations) that you run into the problem of the society you are measuring back yonder being vastly different to the one we have today.

So instead, some food for thought – we’ll measure the changes that have occurred in State polling metrics over 2008, looking at the Primary Vote, Better Premier and Net Satisfaction Ratings.

A lot of these are undoubtedly down to local State government politics, but some may not be. Also note that for the Net Satisfaction value for WA, we couldn’t use the Newspoll released on Monday as it didn’t have any Opposition satisfaction ratings published in it (presumably because of Chairman Sniff standing down from the Opposition Leadership) – so instead we’ve used the April-June quarter reading for that WA entry. Also note that a lot of these results are less than the MoE on the polls – so take low numbers with a grain of salt, but it’s all food for thought anyway.

3 Responses to “Do State governments suffer with Federal Governments of the same party?”

  1. David said

    My recollection of my youth (1960s) is that we had Liberal/Coalition govts in all (or most, anyway) states and federally. Of course, the electoral boundaries were heavliy gerrymandered, which helped a lot, but most people seemed pretty comfortable with the situation. (In case I’m wrong about it being _all_ govts, I was young, South Australian, and not very interested in WA and Tas.)

  2. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    What about the flip-side, Do federal governments suffer with State governments of the same party?

    Morris seems to have upset just about everybody with the planned power sale. I think the best move Barry & Friends can do is say “public we hear you”, vote against it and wait for the publics fuse to burn down at the next election.

  3. Boerwar said

    Both Crabb and Blair on Insiders held the view this morning that the proposition is in the nature of a self-evident truth.

    Blair appeared to be rubbing his hands at the thought that it must be true.

    But, if it is true, and all the states turn libnat, won’t that mean that Rudd will be in forever?

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