Victorian Newspoll – Eroding Satisfaction.
Posted by Possum Comitatus on August 20, 2008
Hot on the heels of the NSW bimonthly Newspoll comes another of the Victorian variety – it’s in the treeware version of The Oz, but not yet online.
The Victorian polling since the election is a textbook case of how public political opinion usually behaves over the political cycle (as opposed to yesterdays NSW example). After the last election there was a spike for 12 months or so before slowly washing out of the system as the grind of day to day politics slowly eroded the governments standing.
There’s a couple of interesting things to note here, the first being the long term erosion of the Better Premier rating for the government over the last 5 years. The second is the deterioration in Net Satisfaction levels of both the Premier and Leader of the Opposition since the last election. If that trend of growing dissatisfaction with the political system were to continue, two things would be expected to happen if the Victorian experience plays out like it does nearly everywhere else in the polling; firstly, the minor party vote grows for fairly obvious reasons, but secondly, the political environment tends to change where politics becomes both more vicious and more superficial (think NSW over the last few years, or QLD 6 months before the last election).
It’s a strange relationship, but as the public becomes more cynical of the major parties, so too do the major parties seem to become more cynical in the way they treat the public. I’m sure Old Media has a large role in how that plays out, more easily justifying the cheap, sensationalist route they seem to pursue when the public starts becoming disenchanted with the political system as a whole.
Anyway, that’s enough of my pontificating (it’s starting to resemble a Gary Says moment from the Morgan polls ) – here’s the charts, just click on them to expand.