US Election Update
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 2, 2008
While Obama may have got a convention polling bounce, the fanfare of the Democratic convention did nothing to stop the continuing Democrat slide in the probabilities.
If we look at both the headline “Democrat as President” market, and our probability of a Democrat as President derived from our State market simulation we get:
So far, our hypothesis of the State market simulations being a leading indicator of the headline market is looking pretty good – with the simulation probability crossing the headline probability a few weeks ago after each metric shot off in conflicting directions, leading to the headline market then playing catchup.
The electoral college votes of both the simulation as well as the current State market ECV allocation have been slowly heading down as well over the last few months.
The Dems seem to have lost their mojo in the win expectations stakes since late July – though so saying, you’d rather be Obama than McCain at the moment. Something worth having a squiz at is that first chart, but with the Gallup tracking polls added to the mix:
The markets and the polls seem to be moving together as we’d expect, except for the last week. It will be interesting to see whether the market moves to follow the polls, or whether the polls behave as the market expects and that Democrat bounce is all air that quickly washes out of the system.
In other news, many apologies for not being around lately – I’m building the new site which should go live in a few weeks. It’s a lot cleaner, information is far more accessible and I even built my first spiffy toy. Many thanks for all the suggestions, quite a few will be taken on board, if not straight away then certainly over time.
As always, the rest of the Intrade data on the US Election can be found over on its dedicated page.
Possums Pollytics 
Enemy Combatant said
Yeah, Poss, it hasn’t been a particularly good month for The Kid as far as probabilities and projected ECVs go, but he’s showing his opponent a clean pain of heels as the whips begin to crack for the sprint home. Obama’s near flawless preparation helped him bring home the bacon before record breaking crowds(live, network and web)in last Thursday’s Group 1 outing in Denver.
He’s certainly shown a nice turn of speed in his latest Gallup.
If Obi holds all Kerry states, not a cert but lookin’ good, he’s on course to pick up:
-Iowa(7 ECVs)easily
-Colorado(9 ECVs)fairly easily after his recent performance
-and New Mexico(5)comfortably, thanks to Richo.
Should such a scenario transpire in the fullness of time going forward, it will be all over red rover for Johnny Bomb-Bomb, Ice Station Sarah and the GOPper collective.
Until Baz is “realistically challenged” in the abovementioned States, exitable boy though I am, my equanimity shall remain undashed.
The above scenario obviates the need for BHO winning Ohio, Virginia and Nevada, States which Obama has excellent chances of snaffling. Of course they will be fought for with fang, hype and claw, a win in any of those States means JMc would be gone to Gowings, but they are not “absolutely must win” States for Obi on the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
2 tanners said
I’ll be watching with some fascination to see if there is an immediate ‘Palin effect’, which I’d have to think would be negative.
steve_e said
The one thing the Democrats will work very hard to achieve this time is to register for the first time a block of voters who would not normally be polled and then get them to vote. Look for large groups of newly registered Hispanic and Black voters. The key to victory is the block of states from Michigan to the East coast (including Ohio).
This is the application of the strategy the Republicans used to good effect to get the hard core religious right to vote as a block in the 1st Bush term.
josh lyman said
Steve_e: make that both terms. Rove brilliantly used gay marriage referenda in a bunch of key states to turn out the fundo vote.
Palin must surely, surely be a massive liability. I know many of them don’t live in the “reality-based comunity” (and I’m including some of my own relatives here), but an unstable heartbeat away from 3000 nukes? Even Dubya had cred compared to Palin. Only in America could she have a chance, and somehow you just know she will actually help McCain, if not enough. And her selection does indicate that McCain thinks he was unelectable without something big happening (which means he doesn’t believe the 50-50 “polls” either).
On that note, the hypocrisy of the Republican cheerleaders on Bristol’s teen pregnancy is sickening. Imagine if that had been Obama’s daughter.
Greeensborough Growler said
Obama’s daughters are 7 & 10. I imagine there would be a lot of comment if either was pregnant at the moment.
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