US Election Update
Posted by Possum Comitatus on September 2, 2008
While Obama may have got a convention polling bounce, the fanfare of the Democratic convention did nothing to stop the continuing Democrat slide in the probabilities.
If we look at both the headline “Democrat as President” market, and our probability of a Democrat as President derived from our State market simulation we get:
So far, our hypothesis of the State market simulations being a leading indicator of the headline market is looking pretty good – with the simulation probability crossing the headline probability a few weeks ago after each metric shot off in conflicting directions, leading to the headline market then playing catchup.
The electoral college votes of both the simulation as well as the current State market ECV allocation have been slowly heading down as well over the last few months.
The Dems seem to have lost their mojo in the win expectations stakes since late July – though so saying, you’d rather be Obama than McCain at the moment. Something worth having a squiz at is that first chart, but with the Gallup tracking polls added to the mix:
The markets and the polls seem to be moving together as we’d expect, except for the last week. It will be interesting to see whether the market moves to follow the polls, or whether the polls behave as the market expects and that Democrat bounce is all air that quickly washes out of the system.
In other news, many apologies for not being around lately – I’m building the new site which should go live in a few weeks. It’s a lot cleaner, information is far more accessible and I even built my first spiffy toy. Many thanks for all the suggestions, quite a few will be taken on board, if not straight away then certainly over time.
As always, the rest of the Intrade data on the US Election can be found over on its dedicated page.