Newspoll November 6
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 6, 2007
Newspoll Tuesday and we have another bouncy poll. ALP leads on primaries 47-42, and on TPP 53-47.
As we’ve been discussing lately, and as we warned at the beginning of the campaign, the TPP numbers get pretty volatile. Today is no exception.
To highlight the trend, let’s look at primary vote figures since May using all Newspolls.
The Coalition appears to be making steady, but extremely slow progress in the primary vote, but at the expense of the minor parties. Yet what is peculiar here is how this plays out with the TPP numbers. As minor party voters have switched to the Coalition, the Coalition share of preference distributions of the remaining ‘others’ continues to increase. That’s the problem with using 2004 preference distributions, while they might generally get a pollster in the right ballbark figure on any given day within a few percent, they are usually wrong in terms of how the small compositional shifts (say 2-3%) between the voting support of all the parties plays out. Apparently, if we were to take these polls literally (which is a naughty thing that shouldn’t be done), 130 000 or so people changed their vote from the ALP to the Greens over the last week and none of them preferenced the ALP, even though greens prefs usually run about 75% to the ALP. That’s why the minor party noise does funny things to the TPP vote.
Those preference flow levels looked a little undercooked as well.
If I take the average primaries for the last four big polls, and do the same with the Greens and “others”, we have a less noisy measure of what is going on. If we then send Greens prefs 75% to the ALP and then split the rest 50/50 (about what usually happens), we get the average result of the last 4 polls being 54.8/45.2 two party preferred to the ALP.
But so saying, its just more insignificant movement from one poll to the next. With that ALP primary being 47, and with only Galaxy ever showing it being under that for any significant period of time, we might not have a good idea of the TPP spread from one poll to the next, but we know that an ALP primary of 47 will deliver a landslide regardless.
George, as always, has sent in the primaries with the band.