Possums Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

You tell me which is more likely?

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 7, 2007

Rates are up. You tell me which scenario is more likely?

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87 Responses to “You tell me which is more likely?”

  1. Kirribilli Removals said

    On the strength of that compelling graph, which you first posted a while back with some insightful analysis, I was compelled to plonk a few bucks on Ms McKew.

    Firstly, she had a consistent lead in the polls, and secondly, with the Reserve an almost sure thing (at that time, near 90%) to be raising rates, it seemed a good offer to get $2.80.

    Now that the Reserve has in fact acted ‘historically’, I await your impeccable logic to do its thing and see a slight rise in Labor’s primary.

    Should this occur, the voters in Bennelong will surely get the feeling that they have the choice to either put Howard in opposition for a few weeks until he retires from politics, or, they can vote for a very likely Labor front bencher.

    It will, as they say, focus the mind!

    Thanks for your heads up on this relationship Possum, it’s yet another of your fascinating insights into the collective mind and the periodic madness of Federal elections.

  2. kwoff.com said

    You tell me which is more likely? « Possums Pollytics

    Rates are up. You tell me which scenario is more likely?

  3. Burgey said

    Sometimes Poss, a picture paints a thousand words.

  4. steve_e said

    For graph 1 to be accurate there would have to be an exodus of support for the ALP that could only relate to issues unrelated to Interest Rates.

    The far more likely position is that the correlation between the two data sets will continue.

  5. Evan said

    Eloquent, Poss, very eloquent.

  6. stevet said

    Shithead and his mates at the Australian tried to play this out as a positive by suggesting that it won’t affect people’s voting intentions very much. I think your graph puts paid to this notion.

  7. [...] Update:  Possum puts it very nicely.  [...]

  8. Enemy Combatant said

    “Rates are up. You tell me which scenario is more likely?”

    (So, you think you’re a hep psephologist, eh? Try this quick quiz!)

    There is a beauty and precision in math that goes beyond the aesthetic, or even bananas as a matter of fact. Way beyond.
    These graphs mightn’t make front page of Citizen Rupert’s rags, but they possess the power to strike raw fear into the hearts of even the most obtuse of tories.

  9. CL de Footscray said

    Res ipsa loquitur is the term to be applied here, I think.

    The government and (some of the MSM) are clearly desperately trying to spin this in to a plus for Howard, simply because they know it’s not. People know how much they’re paying in mortgage repayments, which is what matters. Last year I had a look at the real average value of housing finance – i.e., how much people borrow, on average. In 1995 average borrowings were about 2.5 times annual average full time earnings. By the middle of last year they were 4 times annual average full time earnings. Interest rates are only part of the equation. people under pressure who have to find another $60 a month are going to balme someone for it. It’s hard to blame Rudd. The gut who claimed the credit is going to get it with the baseball bat (so to speak).

  10. John V K said

    Is my bet.

    The RBA was never very happy that Howard and Costello challenged their independence. Every economist in the nation has intimated their economic policy is inflationary. Chuck $10 billion without a plan or modelling in the Murray Darling was not economic. All of their spending ad hoc pork.

    Put in Workchoices, without taking it to the electorate, denied it had been modelled by Treasury , who had, with no forseeable upside econometrically.
    In finance this is called fraud.

    Tax cuts, baby bonuses and family lumps sums chucked in to fuel inflation.
    They aren’t economists arses.

    Rule by the razor, die by the razor of fiscal responsibility. They have no one to thank but themselves.

  11. adam said

    yet another pair of pictures that tell a thousand words…

    fancy kevin having just the right ticket. no doubt he had all of them… ;^)
    but then, that’s how you mess with the rodent’s mind, isn’t it…? and once open season is declared, they’re all in at fairfax.

  12. J. McPherson said

    You cannot say interest rates falls are brilliant budgetary victories whilst blaming rate rises on outside forces – and at the same time attack the previous labor governments for having high interest rates which again is rubbish – libs 22% while Howard was Fraser’s treasurer. The entire economic debate is absolute rubbish and the fault is with the main stream media for failing to make Howard accountable for his lies and doublespeak and even failing to make him answer questions he doesn’t like.

    The real villain of the debate is the MSM which has culpably supported the government in projecting the great lie of liberal economic superiority.

  13. adogge said

    I don’t know eddie, can I ask the audience on this one?

  14. Bruce said

    Re. JH and rates:
    “Hoist by his own petard” is the phrase that comes to mind.

  15. Quintus said

    Quite a substantial quote from Possum’s Crikey article made it in to The Australian today. The tone of the article was very much that these blog sites are a haven for lefties who fear Newspoll and won’t acknowledge the conservative “fightback”. Perhaps you should offer them a swift course in remedial psephology 101!

  16. John said

    No need to use a lifeline, adogge.

  17. stevet said

    I agree, J McPherson. Here is a letter I have sent to the papers. Let’s see if it gets a run:

    Unsurprisingly, Mr Costello has blamed the latest interest rate rise on factors related to world market conditions. If this is the case, can he please explain why interest rates are rising in Australia, but falling in the Untied States?

  18. tooweird said

    They’ve steered us to 10 interest rate hikes in a row with they’re steady hands on the tiller. Can’t help thinking it might be time to change course – or a least time the coalition got their hands off whatever it is they’ve got a hold of.

  19. nomad3 said

    Very eloquently put Possum, I love it ..

    Famous sayings 101 ” Get out digger..the dog is pissing on your swag”

    Gareth Evans to RJ Hawke when it became obvious the ALP had no hope of winning with Hawke..enter Keating and the rest is history..how different things may have been if Howard had seen his swag was being pissed on(as evidenced by your eloquence) and resigned

  20. John Howard said

    Rates are not up.

    Labor is not leading in the polls.

    George W. Bush is not a criminal.

  21. happy chap from Griffith said

    Steve @ 17

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but it’s not as simple as that. The simple economics of supply and demand are at work here as well. For example, Australia is in the midst of a resources boom (increase in demand for Australian dollars, upward pressure on interest rates), conversely the US is in the midst of a housing downturn (decrease in demand for US$ to pump into the housing industry, downward pressure on interest rates). These relative force push the spread in the AUD$-USD$ and in turn drive interest rate pressure. While the coalition could have put some downward pressure on interest rates by working with the states to address capacity constraints, it’s unlikely that in the short-term this would have done much to help.

    Though it is interesting that Costello wants to blame the global economy when things are going bad, but lay all the credit on domestic management when things where going well (e.g. pre-2004 rate rise). This sort of view is economically stupid, and really does sums up the extent to which Howard/Costello are prepared to lie to get back into power (with the happy help of folks at the Oz of course!).

  22. Possum Comitatus said

    Its even a lot more complicated than that Happy Chappy, but this isnt about the mechanics, its about the behavioural reaction.

    The more the government spins the outcome, the more damage they’ll probably do to themselves in the process

  23. happy chap from Griffith said

    ps. Did anyone else notice the Howard ‘apology’on interest rates?

    “I don’t like it and I would say to the borrowers of Australia who are affected by this change that I am SORRY about that AND I REGRET the additional burden that will be put upon them as a result.”

    I thought he didn’t “apologise” about things he had “no control over” (eg. stolen generation)?? As this quote makes it sound as though he is accepting causal responsibility for the rate rise, it seems like Capt. Flip-flop has changed his policy on apologies.

  24. Sancho said

    Quote: “Quite a substantial quote from Possum’s Crikey article made it in to The Australian today …
    Comment by Quintus ”

    Reading that today it sounded like a salvo in a class war. And it makes you think there has been some direct hits on their ego’s in recent weeks.

    No doubt Ms Maiden is trawling the sites eagerly this morning for signs that she had some effect – I’m sorry Samantha, but it merely resembled one of those fillers we get following an Aussie’s success in sport – “What the papers overseas papers say about us!”

  25. happy chap from Griffith said

    Of course it is Poss, that’s why people can spend whoel PhDs examining it! The point I was trying to make was that it wasn’t as simple as Costello taking his eye off the ball. But on the behavioural side of things I certainly agree that it looks bloody ordinary for the Gov…

  26. Ratsak said

    Shorter Costello: Global effects never act to reduce rates when the Coalition is in power or raise rates when Labor is in power. Conversely global effects explain all interest rate rises under the Libs (other than those caused by the Labor States), and all rate reductions under Labor.

    Shorter Possum: Dead rat.

  27. happy chap from Griffith said

    you hit the nail on the head Ratsak!

  28. John V K said

    Poss if you think your little rate rise thingy hasn’t made it to all party campaign hqs in Australia as a major factor in politics from now on you are not the little destructo possum we all agree you are, forget the MSM.

    Now the only question that remains is will Rudd and Swan have the guts to walk the walk knowing how diabolical dumb talk and no action can be.

    George M asks this question this day and it is a fair enough question but I doubt they would be dumb enough to start inside the race track of the triennial great race on breaking promises.

    Game over and that appears check mate. The only thing left is to watch the fall out. The coalition campaign has been nothing but a disaster and the Rudd campaing brilliant.

  29. seajay said

    did anyone see the nice graph Alan Koehler (forgive spelling) showed on ABC news last night; difference between Australian interest rates and OECD average rates under Labor and Lberal regimes? Essentially identical;I can recall at the time of 17% under Keating they were roughly the same in the US and UK. Howard’s whole interest rate claim has always been a lie, it is to the media’s and ALP’s shame that they never challenged the basic falsehood.

  30. stevet said

    Happy chap @ 21, I know it is not as simple as that. I think your second paragraph summed it up quite well.

    I am merely pointing out that the basis for Costello’s argument is complete bullshit. They are happy to claim the credit when rates fall, but it is someone else’s fault when they rise.

  31. Bruce said

    Re seajay @ 29
    Yes I saw Kohler’s graph. Basically it shows Australia has exerted the same net demand on world money markets (hence the interest rate premium) since the start of the Hawke government. One more nail in the coffin of the Coalition being better economic managers.

  32. Andos the Great said

    Seajay,

    Yes, I saw Alan Kohler’s graph. The ratio of RBA cash rates to the OECD average since 1987. The average ratio for Labor = 1.2. The average ratio for the Coalition = 1.2.

    Myth busted.

  33. happy chap from Griffith said

    Stevet @ 30

    Ah fair enough! Glad to hear we’re all in agreement. Hope they publish it!

  34. Andos the Great said

    For those wondering, here is a link to the Samantha Maiden article in The Australian today entitled “Blogged down in pessimism of the Left”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22716454-5013948,00.html

    “IT’S a subculture infested with Labor-loving pessimists who have spent the year dreading the Newspoll that shows the Coalition is back in the game.”

  35. imacca said

    Interesting thing on these graphs is the lag between rates going up and a change in the polls.

    There are some times when ALP primary is up straight away, and others when it lags a few weeks. That could be due to the polling cycle being quite relaxed when there is no election in the offing (so there is sometimes a time gap betwixt rate rise and polling), more than people waiting till the banks jack rates up in response to an RBA decision?

    I would think that with the focus on the RBA and rates because of the election campaign, and the frequent polling going on at the moment, the effect on primary vote of this rate rise will definitely be shown at the next set of polls. The LNP need a bounce from this and their upcoming “campaign launch” which is happening Thursday i think?? If for any reason Morgan on Friday shows a move to the ALP, and then Newspoll shows either a move to the ALP or no change then the Rattus Crew may well just sit in a corner and weep till the election. Imagine, will be awaiting the bounce, or the dead cat splat??

  36. George said

    Andos the Great, it’s all part of the right wing’s strategy to talk about ANYTHING but this rate rise. It’s very amusing to be honest. I can’t wait to see how many of these “commentators” will be sweating after 24th Nov.

  37. Guido said

    Andos at comment 34. Now we are even providing Government Gazette journalist with copy. I’d never thought I’d see the day.

  38. Possum Comitatus said

    Imacca, where the rate change occurs in the polling cycle does seem to influence fairly dramatically the lag length in the polls between movement in the cash rate and movement in the polls.

    As for whether the election compresses that reaction period – we’ll find out shortly :-)

    Maybe the polls wont move at all, maybe interest rate reaction has already been built into the polls.Lots of things to ponder.

  39. Kevin Brady said

    Oh please, please everyone – do yourselves a favour and get a read of this!!

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard/

    Caroline Overington is saying that the rate rise is ‘good news’ for Howard. This is the best comedy since the Three Stooges! Reading the comments, though, it seems that not everyone agrees with her … hmmmm.

  40. Enemy Combatant said

    One for officionados from Lateline last night. Although he has a Soprano m.o., Tenor Tony’s last sentence is the stiletto slipping in between the ribs.

    ALEXANDER DOWNER: …….We also know that if Labor wins the election, they will have a frontbench made up, 70 per cent of whom will be former trade union officials and a completely inexperienced leader who has never been a minister. Now when you have difficult economic circumstances, I think it makes an awful lot of sense to stick with what’s working now and not to take a punt on inexperience and former trade union officials.

    TONY JONES: Yes, but the voters are going to have to take a punt on what’s going to happen under a Costello government that they haven’t actually voted for. They voted for a Howard government and a lot of people are going to want to know who the possible Treasurer is, particularly as we are being told the economic times we are moving into are rather uncertain and wouldn’t a return to a Downer/Costello dream team actually be quite logical?

    ALEXANDER DOWNER: Look, we haven’t even won the election. I don’t know whether we will win the election. I think it is difficult to win. I do know what Labor’s team would be……..

  41. Peachy said

    Interesting quote from the Australian about the latest Newspoll results on the economy:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22716457-5014047,00.html

    “Most AGREED interest rates are historically low. Only 23 per cent believe the current rate to be TOO high and IN THE CONTEXT of an increase from 5.25 per cent to 6.5per cent, 42 per cent think it is a “good result”, against 28 per cent who don’t.”

    These figures don’t seem to be present in the actual published newspoll, but they do suggest a few loaded questions being asked. Anyone else a little curious as to what other questions may have been asked in this newspoll, and whether they were asked before the published questions so as to favour a particular result?

    Is it just a coincidence that newspoll decided to release this on the morning of the interest rate rise?

    Seems a bit suspect to me.

  42. Possum Comitatus said

    Peachy, that’s actually a self-selecting online poll The Oz is running with OnlineOpinion, rather than Newspoll.

    It’s results aren’t worth a great deal, that’s the problem with self selecting samples that dont have sophisticated weighting mechanisms, nor an extremely large user base to draw from (say, like the ACNielsen online polls use).

  43. Bruce said

    “IT’S a subculture infested with Labor-loving pessimists who have spent the year dreading the Newspoll that shows the Coalition is back in the game.”

    My God, when you have a rabidly pro-government main-stream media dominated by Murdoch’s Newscorp, even people who want balance need to look elsewhere.

  44. Bruce said

    “Which is more likely?”

    To be honest Poss, there is a turn-down of (is it) 5% in the sampled 2PP in late 2004 just before the election was called. Such a situation would deliver a coalition victory.

    Although there is a correlation in the data, and I suspect there is a delayed effect on voting intentions once the actual rate rises bite, I also suspect issues other than interest rates are as important in the polls.

  45. Peachy said

    Ah thanks for that Possum. i guess i assumed it was Newspoll because they didn’t mention where they had got the figures from, and it corresponded in my mind with the newspoll this morning that Howard had widened his lead over Rudd on economic management.

    I agree these self selecting online polls are a complete load of rubbish. It’s the same with Sky News online polls – the only thing they tell you really is about the demographics of the viewing audience, nothing balanced about it at all. From what i have seen the natural bias towards Howard on Sky’s polls seems to be somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30. The presenters on Sky even sometimes seem a little embarrassed at the kind of figures they are producing, obviously they realise that they are complete hogwash, but I suppose they make lots of money from the call in costs so they are not allowed to bag them!

  46. Nick Mallory said

    The Australian Government is thinking about setting up a consultation blog/forum to give the public a chance to debate public policy.

    If you want to help shape the form this blog will take then have your say here:

    http://www.openforum.com.au/Survey

    It only takes a couple of minutes and could help lead to something really worthwhile. Thanks.

  47. Stephen Tardrew said

    Poss there done like a dinner. Still won’t change my mind. Really good stuff. Julia roasted Hokey today boy did he look totally defeated. Her summary was a was delivered with dignity and maturity. She has certainly made the grade. Might be biased but thought she put intelligent women on the map. need more of her.

  48. Grumps said

    Poss,

    IMO the effect of the interest rate rise will be to nullify the supposed narrowing. In other words I feel Rudd has peaked and we will band about the 55% TPP for the rest of the election campaign.

    Thanks everyone for the pointer to the GG, What a laughable effort. But why take to heart the spouting of this pack of idiots? Why are they spending so much time and effort trying to kill messages like possum’s?

    Overington’s article is off the wall. Following the blog her replies could have equally come from a 12 year old typing in stock replies from a script for the greater good of the Party, Liberal that is. She has made no real attempt. (Rupert should be concerned)

    Young”s article is reasonable but biased Rupert’s way, of course.

    Maiden’s article shows that the amount of research done was equivalent to what was placed in front of them by some one higher up.

    All of them carry a commonality that they recognise that no longer is any one tied to restrictive MSM message. The information is out there. You must judge its veracity as equally as you judge the MSM. The thought of freethinking populace must strike fear into their dark hearts.

    One interesting aside is the each way nature of the articles. Some of you have read it one-way, I another. Why?

    The obvious answer is that Rupert is worried that market share will be lost permantely.

    At least their articles serve to point out analysis contrary to theirs. Feel justly rewarded Poss that they think enough of you to try and knock you off!!! (Watch out for poisoned bait poss’ in your nocturnal wonderings) ;>)

  49. BV said

    Do you know the red line in that second graph looks like it’s doing to me???

    GOING FOR GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH…

  50. Bruce said

    Re 46 Nick Mallory and the Australian Business Forum,

    What do you guys think? personally I like having input to policy formulation, but I’m concerned about being pigeon holed in a database, a common method used by the major parties these days to focus their resources on swinging voters.

  51. alpal said

    Possum,

    Have you written about the impact of poll stories in the main media on voting intention? Also have you written about the accuracy of polling on the final Wed/Thurs/Fri – published on the Saturday – against the actual result? ( I’m penning the odd piece for an on-line journal somewhere in the world on the bloody Oz election)

  52. Possum Comitatus said

    Hi Al,

    I’ve never written about the impact of the media narrative on polls, because I can’t “quantify” a media narrative variable… pity.

    The only thing I’ve done on the final polls in the campaign was in “The Narrowing” – but actually looked at the whole campaign. Unfortunately, I backcast election preferences onto the primary votes to get a TPP figure more realistic than the ones the polls provided, so that’s probably not much help either.

    But the primary vote results of the election are nearly nearly always within the MoE of the big pollsters final poll, their TPP not as much so because sometimes the pollsters get their preference flows wrong.

  53. Possum Comitatus said

    Bruce, I have no idea who the Australian Business Forum is?

  54. Refried Noodle said

    Which scenario is more likely?

    Out of those it obviously won’t be the first one.

    But I can’t see the second one happening either. You would expect the trend to continue, but this is an election campaign. With the saturation of ‘Interest rates under Labor’ fear campaign ads and the 96% of all betting put on the coalition since the rate rise it will be somewhere in between.

  55. Possum Comitatus said

    That 96% of all betting moola sounds all a little too organised for this Possum.

  56. George said

    Refried Noodle @ 52, firstly, if the total amount placed today was $20,000 and 96% was for the Libs, then we’re hardly seeing a huge amount of cash going to betting on a coalition win. And secondly, to back my hunch that the total money placed today was bugger all, Centrebet still have pretty much the same odds as previously: LABOR 1.36, COALITION 3.15

    My answer to this so-called 96% of money to the coalition is “whatever”. I like saying that, it makes me feel like a teenager again ;-)

  57. John V K said

    and if I remember blog history correctly this looks like a Possum ambush.

  58. Chatswood Statsman said

    Possum
    I participated in the self selecting Oz online poll re the Interest rate rise effect. The questions were reasonable but the results are just that – the views of a self selecting group who access the Oz online.

    I certainly won’t be changing my vote as a result of the rise. I’ve never ever voted for JWH and that’s acore promise!

  59. KC said

    Hi,
    I too participated in the Australian’s survey on interest rates. What the survey is not likely to bring to light is the number of people, like me, who know that interest rates have less to do with Government policies than global conditions, but am going to get the little bugger anyway for telling lies to those less knowledgeable who purchased houses (beyond their means) based on those lies.

  60. SugarGlider said

    Possum & All,
    The Oz/OnlineOpinion polls are self-selecting and really focus on qualitative rather than quantitative analysis. They seem to get a few thousand respondents, enough to make some links between opinions and voting intention, understanding the dynamics of voters’ responses and whose minds are being changed. Not a basis for statistical inference, but informative nonetheless.

  61. Ratsak said

    The spin on how the interest rate rise will help the Government in the Village Idiot (former known as the Government Gazette) is pure farce. The must be taking lessons from old Python sketches.

    Lovely Rodent the Kirribilli Black Rat. It’s not dead, it’s resting. He’s pining for Forde!

    I wonder how Costello feels being the replacement slug?

  62. Kramer said

    I advise everyone here to go and read Caroline’s blog over at the GG. Some of the reader comments are hilarious!

  63. Possum Comitatus said

    On the Overington blog, it looks like she’s taking everyone for a ride.

    There’s nothing quite like a bit of contrarian commentary to stir up the hornets nest and generate eyeballs and traffic in the process.

  64. Evan said

    Just saw that film The Producers again.

    I’ve gotta say, with this interest rates stuff, Howard is increasingly striking me as the Max Bialystock of Australian politics: He’s never done an honest day’s work in his life but rather takes the credit for everyone else’s hard work; He’s pathologically incapable of telling the truth about anything; And he’s relied entirely on schmoozing support from dumb schmucks and little old ladies to stay in business for as long as he has.

    Unless he can come-up with the political equivalent of Springtime for Hitler in the next two weeks, he’s toast.

  65. paradiseenough said

    Hi Poss. This analysis bothers me a little. I am not a statistician (IANAS),but both those trends look pretty much like linear progressions to me. Lots of things vary with time and if the cumulative deaths in Iraq or an index of JWH’s receding hair and increasing speech defect were graphed against the TPP rate with the scales adjusted as needed I imagine they would look much the same. In each instance if the linear component was extracted I doubt if the residuals would show too much correlation.

    Fwiw my guess is that the change in TPP poll measures relates mainly to a progressive increase in the population who have concluded that the government has the moral dimensions of a cockroach over issues such as asylum seeker detention, Iraq, Hicks, Haneef and so on. (Not fair, roachs are God’s creatures – the govt is much worse.)

    Of course you may be right, and if you are contributing to a self fulfilling prophecy then more strength to your furry paw!

  66. Enemy Combatant said

    Avowed monarchist and in every sense, Yesterday’s Rodent, a Union Jack backdropped PM yesterday shocked many who supported his marsupial-friendly policy when he distanced himself from his “Gopher Growth” campaign theme.
    As Chris Hitchens would say: “There goes the Mammal Vote!”

  67. Possum Comitatus said

    Paradise, what stops this from being a spurious relationship is the link between the first difference of the cashrate (the monthly change in the cashrate) and the first difference of the ALP TPP (the monthly change in the ALP TPP). The first month after the rate rise shows a jump in the change in ALP TPP vote. So we know that the change in the cash rate has an impact on the vote. It’s really the first difference relationship between the two variables that tells us that it isnt just luck that these two things move together.

  68. Wombat said

    Hey, Evan (68), you’re being unfair to Bialystock.

  69. Wombat said

    Hey, Evan (64), you’re being unfair to Bialystock.

  70. Jess said

    Dennis Atkins in the Courier Mail is quoting you again Possum… good analysis by him again – even if it is largely yours – there is some home for newslimited!

  71. paradiseenough said

    Hmm. I see what you mean. (‘fraid I didn’t read the original post properly.) While it may be suggestive, there still looks like lots of noise in there (of course) and I don’t think just a squizz at the graph is completely convincing. It would be interesting to see how this compared with other periods where there were a series of interest rate rises, even overseas cases. Would the more responsible market analysts (clang! the oxymoron bell goes)have any sort of validated tools that could be useful in this context? They are always trying to drag the entrails out of this sort of series comparisons. What about just pulling out the linear lines of best fit and then doing a time adjusted correlationon on the residuals?

    PS Even if the two series are only basically linear against time it’s still entirely possible that the relationship isn’t spurious – there could be a direct causal relationship or via some intervening variable.

  72. dkindon said

    Here’s a link to the RBA spreadsheet which tells the real story

    http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=9bmaqfcab.0.0.cpbrdvbab.0&ts=S0290&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rba.gov.au%2FStatistics%2FBulletin%2FF01hist.xls&id=preview

    It shows interest rate in 1982 peaking under Howard at 21.39%.

  73. Aspirational Aspirationalist said

    Possum,

    Did you get my e-mail where i asked you “What do you think ? Can this be added to Pollycide series”.

    As its pretty big, i thought i’d ask you before posting it as a comment or comments.

  74. Possum Comitatus said

    AA, as it was big it ended up in the spam bin, I’ve just fished it out and I’ll have a look.

  75. KeepingALidOnIt said

    Looking back at your original “Why Rates Matter” post, it seems to me that there is an upper and lower limit to ALP votes as compared to rates movements – that is, some people will vote for the ALP even when the interest rates are at 4.25% and some people won’t vote for the ALP, even when interest rates are hitting 8% (the rusted-on blocs). So I wonder whether we will actually see a great deal of upward movement in the ALP primary vote, or whether we have already hit a natural upper limit? Perhaps this rates rise will simply firm up the so-called soft vote that Sol Lebovic tells us is in the ALP vote.

    So, in keeping with my pseudonym, I would think that the ALP aren’t necessarily going to see a massive increase in their vote out of this rates rise, but gee, they really couldn’t be unhappy with just the status quo!

  76. Adam said

    hi there all… regards 46, 50 above

    just went to check out that survey at openforum, then realized I wanted to protest their plan, which turns on “official” discussion of policy. slippery slope to mind control time…

    objecting is a simple idea, but guess what? the questions are almost all compulsory. so if like me, you simply wish to say:

    “rack off, i don’t want the govt. hosting discussion, as i much prefer the myriad of liberty-oriented adhoc networks that have developed in the public online space (like poss’s for instance) and i’d rather that you the government didn’t own yet another dubious means of authorizing your centralist tendencies and shaping public opinion to suit yourselves and your ideological imperatives”

    … then you are nonetheless obliged to continue by giving them all manner of opinions about your preferences for how they should run it, which will no doubt be rolled out in support. it all seems a little too fait accompli to me. if you wish to truly object, there is no space for you there. does this not suggest a survey skewed to get a let’s do it answer?

    so, why is it that i just don’t trust their wish to “host” debate…?

  77. Jason said

    Dear Possum and readers – please see our ABC Opinion “Club Bloggery” piece about the Oz’s attack on pseph bloggers – Cheers, Jason.

  78. typingisnotactivism said

    that Club Bloggery article is deadly. Keep it up PC -> you and your peers’ skilled commentary is sorely needed. Best wishes & hoping to hell that Aussie voters don’t get hypnotized by the mainstream brain-death-dealers (again).

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