Weekend Open Thread – Penultimate Edition
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 9, 2007
Have any comments, suggestions, requests, criticisms or need to channel your inner C/T? Perhaps just feeling the need for some polly spleen venting – this is your place.
As the weekend rolls on, any juicy polling bits that pop up will be rolled into this post with updates.
The latest Morgan phone poll is out, the first taken after the rate rise showing the ALP up 1.5% for a 56/44 split. This uses a small sample of 552, so the MoE is a bit over 4% for this one.
We also have Fairfax doing the age breakdowns of a collection of Nielsen polls showing boomers are on the Howard rampage with the 40-54s showing a 10% swing to the ALP.
Speaking of rampages, some poor lady was knocked out during a Howard shopping centre visit in Penrith – baby kissing becomes a contact sport and a good reason if ever there was one to avoid shopping centres in an election campaign.
After the rate rise, the internal party polling phones were running hot as one could imagine. The ALP stuff apparently showed some demographics fuming over the rate rise, while Millward Brown polling for Crosby Textor was also asking about candidate recognition and favourability – which sounds suspiciously to me like determining whether the Liberal Party label should be added or removed from the final round of local campaign literature.
Meanwhile over at ABC’s Club Bloggery, there’s a new piece worth a read, although I wasn’t quite sure where or how I fitted into the Sam Maiden piece. I still don’t know if I was being slapped or tickled.
Anyway, on with the show – we should have some more national polling out for the weekend and a Galaxy poll on Wentworth showing Turnbull slightly behind.
UPDATE 1
Poor lady.
Terrible look for Howard – waving the finger, looks like he’s giving the poor women a lecture.
But did it really happen this way as some have suggested? 
Thanks to Dave from Albury for that one in the comments.
UPDATE 2:
Apparently Michelle Levine on NewsRadio says Morgans new Face to Face poll (that they often release today as well) has the ALP with a 22% lead. That’d be 61/39 to the ALP.
Ahem… yeah, and in other breaking news, no strange men have been seen on public transport.
It’s out now HERE below the phone poll results. It’s actually 62/38 to the ALP.
This is what 62/38 would look like on election night.
UPDATE 3:
The porkies we tell eh?
Here was Shanahan in the Oz earlier today:
He’s obviously been fed this stuff by the Libs via PM&C. It’s doom and gloom about how our whole automotive industry will die along with the 13K odd jobs it supports if Rudd were to win government – the only problem was that it turned out to be complete and utter bullshit as the car industry itself now says:
Car industry pulls rug under report
Since The Oz was either lied to and Shanahan taken for a ride, or they themselves were part of the deception, will they run a retraction or follow up on the front page tomorrow or when they can get to the bottom of it? Credibility and all folks – it would be the thing to do if one had integrity.
Maybe a story on why PM&C told porkies to journalists and who in the Liberal Party authorised it?
UPDATE 4:
A new ACNielsen online poll has the ALP and Coalition steady on 56/44. This was taken the day before, on the day and the day after the rate rise. That makes last three results from the ACN online poll as 56, 55, 56 – pretty stable.
I guess we’ll have to wait for Newspoll to get a handle on any rate fallout.
Over at the SMH, Annabel Crabb gets all psephy on interest rate responsibility….. with numbers and everything!
Good work Ms Crabb.
UPDATE 5:
Apparently Turnbull and Newhouse in Wentworth are 50/50 TPP split from tomorrows Tele poll.
HERE are the details
Skynooz has beefed up their election coverage:
“Sky News will launch a ground breaking seven screen service to cover every aspect of Election 07 Day and Night.
The seven channels will include “Main News Election 07”, “Howard”, “Rudd”, “Reaction”, “Tally Room”, plus 3 other channels showing results from individual seats in detail and other news. Sky News will also have teams at the Howard event in Sydney, and the Rudd event in Brisbane. “
Which is nice and all, but they just dont have Antony.
Possums Pollytics 
George said
Poss, when is the Galaxy poll being released (on Wentworth)?
Possum Comitatus said
Sunday I think.
dany le roux said
Refusing to shake the hand of el Rodente (homage to E.C here) is a matter worthy of police investigation? They’ll just have to beat me to a pulp with a telephone book until 25 th Nov..
Niz said
Seen this Possum…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086436.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Apparently this website counts as therapy. Where can I swipe my medicare card?
Greensborough Growler said
Possum,
She is a GG Journo. She’ll be what ever you want her to be.
Kirribilli Removals said
Poss, I know it’s hardly a sample to speak of, but if its essential direction is right, do you think it’s a very early hint of your Cash Rate/Labor nexus?
Possum Comitatus said
It might be KR, it might also just be noise – it might a lot of things! 🙂
Kirribilli Removals said
Yeah, thought you’d say that, but us more intemperate types would be going for the ‘right direction’ feeling!
And oh, what a feeeeeeling!
Cheers
Possum Comitatus said
Well KR, since I may or may not be a therapist – if you send me a cheque, I’ll tell you exactly want you want to hear
S said
I hate my mother!
…. Wow, this site DOES work like therapy.
steve_e said
Poss
Anything TPP showing a change of government that is above 55 is what we want to hear. Having the data to support this number is even better news. We wnat to see that 1.5% interets rate movement bite into support for the Coalition.
imacca said
So, if we want to get published in the national daily, just post to Possum or PB??
Fun Fun!!
bryn said
He looks very solemn. Is he giving her the last rites?
Greensborough Growler said
The video is not a good look for Howard.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=280266§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
Severin said
There was an interesting story on local Adelaide ABC radio this morning:
Someone within the Adelaide Uni Politics department (I can’t recall his name) has been organising some polling as part of the student coursework. They ran a similar study before the last SA State Election with good results, predicting the independant Nick Xenophon’s vote of around 20%.
From memory, they polled around 500 people within metropolitan Adelaide.
Of interest, their poll predicted the following senate votes;
Labour 36%
Liberal 28%
Xenophon 24%
The difficulty for Xenophon is that he is not a political party and so is only listed below the line on the senate ticket.
To attempt to test this affect, a separate poll was taken where they asked people who they would vote for in the senate, telling them the names of all the parties. In this instance, Xenophon polled only 8% of the vote (even though his name wasn’t listed)
Also, their poll suggested a 50% primary ALP vote in the lower house!
Greensborough Growler said
Michelle Levine, Gary Morgan’s 2IC has been quoted on Melbourne radio saying the f2f poll has Labor in front by 22%.
More to come no doubt!
Lomandra said
Sheesh, Howard just walked away from her, GG! Not a good look at all. That’s going to go down very badly on the news tonight.
The Keegan said
Some ripper captions for this pic over at Mr Bludger, but the vid footage of the knockdown will run ugly for the Toad, he just looks so distracted and uncaring as he walks off
Eljenxo said
Hey, I was included in Samanth Maiden’s too! If it was meant to be a slap then it sure did tickle because I couldn’t stop laughing when I read it!
Beach Ball said
I was at Penrith Plaza during the Rodent’s incursion into the food-court. It appars it was a backwards walking cameraman who barrelled the woman and the cement slab for a floor had no “give” in it.
Rodent and the local candidate, who the locals have taken to calling “Helium” as she’s a lightweight that’s lighter than air, stood like stunned mullets for about 10 seconds not knowing what to do. It certainly didn’t enter their minds to approach the woman and ask if she was OK.
Then Rodent turned on his heels and went on to impose himself on some other poor suckers having their morning tea, leaving the poor woman in the hands of Plod and Protective Services. Protective Services guy said he had to go as Rodent has done a runner, so Plod had to sit with her for another 10 minutes.
I couldn’t get close to Rodent, but Plod and Protective Services were being told by staffers who was allowed to get close and who wasn’t. The foul stench of death was resonating about the place.
andrew said
Actually Xenophon has an above the line spot as he has a running mate.
John V K said
Good day all and Hail Lord Possum, Sage of Sages,
The petrol thing is not good news for the coalition, $1-50 coming up, if as ol Poss has done with interest rates, this may also be an impact the consumers though thinking on one level the government is not all to blame for interest ratesd, but need someone to blame, similarly the major part of the oil price is driven by offshore forces but emotionally will need something to blame.
I have never seen a concatenation of negatives rolling thru an election for one side, like this ever and I dont think they’ve won a weekly media cycle yet.
As for Samantha and Caroline, they aren’t used to paradigm shifts. Citizen media will never replace Commercial media, but the difference is true specialisation and may even focus both the left and the right away from ideology and into a facts based opinion regardless of partisanship.
Anyway I reckon the 55s aren’t sure yet, but are watching very closely, that’s my feel or take on it, but if they move we may not have seen anything yet. They are not convinced with the alternative. The business sector SME and Trades etc biggest bitch is unfair dismissal still.
John Hunt Is A Coward said
Could this be the Latham Handshake moment of the campaign? Especially after the sorrygate?
HarryH said
Morgan f2f and Newspoll both polled last weekend.
Morgan 61-39
Newspoll 53-47
I think this shows the credibility of both polls.
i said in an earlier thread here this week that the newspoll last weekend was clearly doctored to try and produce cover for Workchoices in the upcoming landslide.
The owners of newspolls analysis since on the loaded poll and its sub polls proves this.
i think the truth of the polls is def somewhere in the middle of these 2 outliers and the most credible poll AC Nielson will show that.
Ptobias said
Hey Possum, you’re famous – and so are the blogospheres:
“IT’S a subculture infested with Labor-loving pessimists who have spent the year dreading the Newspoll that shows the Coalition is back in the game.”
Ptobias said
Bleh, I just saw the paragraph I missed in your post. How embarassment. Ignore me and I’ll go away.
Possum Comitatus said
Don’t you hate that Ptobias 😉
Kirribilli Removals said
Possum, you’ve given the entire nation the therapy it both needs and deserves! A rational and insightful commentary on the polls; and what a powerful antidote it is to the gawdawful crud that oozes throughout the nations arteries pretending to be ‘news’.
Thanks, you’ve done a migty good lot of healing.
Ringtail said
What the Oz has done is simply direct mainstream attention to good blogs like this one. That’s surely a good thing.
Eljenxo said
Geez, surely Johnny could of hung around for a bit just to see if the poor lady was alright.
We see the camera panning back and forwards between the victim and the Prime Minister as if ready to catch the moment when John Howard heroically lowers himself onto bended knee with soothing words of concern. But the PM has seen voters nearby that he must woo, and surmising that the unconscious woman’s vote is already lost he’s off like a shot spruiking monotone banalities to anyone who is still in a wakeful enough state to still listen to him.
It could have only looked worse for him if he had gone and stepped on the lady’s prostrate torso in his haste to depart.
Sam Clifford said
A 22% margin is an absolute wipe-out even if the swing’s not uniform. The aggregate polls will probably be a little kinder and this is likely to be an outlier. Still, it puts a smile on my face.
Rod said
John V K wrote: “Anyway I reckon the 55s aren’t sure yet, but are watching very closely, that’s my feel or take on it, but if they move we may not have seen anything yet. They are not convinced with the alternative.”
Well, as a “died in the wool” 55er (born in 1952) I can sympathise with that. Most of my friendly age mates have serious reservations about Rudd. Just about all of us wonder why on earth he is wasting the perfect opportunity to knock the stuffing out of Howard and to turn Australia into something worth having some pride in again! That’s why we are just about all voting Green!
Cheers
Rod
Kirribilli Removals said
Rod, we of the same vintage and general persuasion concur, but let’s be realistic, the greatest Wedgemeister of the western world, with the force of a simperingly complient media was going to eat anyone who didn’t approach the electorate softly, softly.
Latham can rant and rave that Rudd is a conservative, Howard can rant and rave that Rudd is just the same as he is, but the electorate is unmoved: Howard is finished.
To think that a radical green agenda from Labor would have lasted more than milliseconds is a nice fantasy, but I’d rather the reality we have now.
Let the changes begin…slowly, but surely.
The Doctor said
Rod,
I hope you’re not “died in the wool” since you have to be alive to vote, I’d much prefer it if you were “dyed in the wool”!!
Ratsak said
Hmmm, do I go over and say sorry? Nope that might be taken as an apology, which might be taken as an admission of culpability, which might cause some to question the infalability of the great and mighty OZ…
Oh what to do, what to do…
I think I’ll just wander off over this way looking innocent. Just remember – not my fault, nothing to be sorry for…
Rod said
Mmm. Yes, KR, but I reckon we have reached the point in this campaign where the result is evident and it is time to do a bit more about the actual mandate.
I suspect, actually, that such a “surge” would play better with the electorate than any more of the “security blanket” stuff.
Just about everyone truly does want a change. It has been obvious for months. It shows no sign of abating. Lets make sure it is a change worth having!
A bit of pressure on Rudd from somewhere to the progressive side of Ghengis Kahn certainly won’t do the new government any harm!
No one is talking about “radical green agendas” here. Even something equivalent to Don Chipp in the late 60’s and early 1970’s on most social issues would take us a long way closer to where we need to be! When Rudd moves as far to the left as a 70’s liberal Lib minister I reckon we’ll be heading in the correct direction! It is a long, long way back to get to where we need to be if we genuinely want a respectable place for Australia in the modern world!
Cheers
Rod
Matt said
Possum,
Have been wondering (as I’m sure you have) for some time about the number of voters who really make up their mind in the last week/last day/in the booth.
Not sure if there are stats around, but would be great to see you do a piece on this if possible (or are you saving it for the last week/last day/in the booth? ;))
Keep up the good work.
Rod said
The Doctor writes:
“Rod, I hope you’re not “died in the wool” since you have to be alive to vote, I’d much prefer it if you were “dyed in the wool”!!”
Given the political environment we’ve been living in for the last decade I’m not quite sure which really applies, Doc!
There is a point where the particular style of ‘relaxed and comfortable” we’ve been going through makes you wonder whether you have been genuinely and permanently stuffed (probably with something synthetic, I’ll grant you, rather than wool, in the current political climate) or whether there is still a little room for some genuine variation in hues!
I hope you are right. I’d certainly prefer to be demonstrating a touch of colour and life , rather than simply being stuck on a plinth on the wall in Wollstencraft!
😉
Cheers
Rod
alpal said
Possum, re cargate: Look for a clean-out in the Federal bureaucracy from Nov 24 – starting with Peter Shergold at PM and C.
swio said
In the last election pretty much all the pollsters got the result “wrong” with results that suggested a Labor win. It was all within the margin of error so its not like anybody really screwed up, but I have been wondering. Is it possible the pollsters have tried to “correct” for this and may be understating the Labor vote at the moment? especially the 2PP ?
sculls said
The greatest irony of this election is that (in large part) Mark Latham has been winning this battle for Kevin Rudd (someone who Latham intensely dislikes) because when he lost the 2004 election not only did he loose seats in the House of Reps, he gave the Rodent control of the Senate (with the help of Family First); without the moderating influence of Democrats the Rodent felt free to bring in his extreme Work Choices legislation which, as most political observers agree, has come back to bit him on the bum big time.
Lindsay voter said
Beach Ball, did you manage to say anything to Howard? Have been hoping to bump into Howard during this campaign so I can refuse to shake his hand.
Possum Comitatus said
alpal – voluntary retirements will be the order of the day I’d imagine.
Swio – I’m sure the pollsters would have continued to improve their methods over the period of the last 3 years.Unfortunately we wont know how the effect of that plays out until we see the election results to compare against the polling itself.
Matt – it’s hard to determine because to find that out, its usually done in a simple survey format where people are asked “when did you make up your mind”. Unfortunately with those types of questions, there are a large number of people that will answer “Oh, late in the campaign” to make themselves look like they carefully weighed up the positions of each party and voted responsible – regardless of whether they actually did or not.
Rod said
That would be actually be 62/38, Poss on the Morgan FtF?
Cheers
Rod
Possum Comitatus said
Yep, on the Morgan F2F – done on the weekend before the rate rise.
Doh – typo! 62/48 eh.
That makes it nearly whackier than it already is.
John V K said
Who the hell is running the Coalition Campaign the Maritime Union of Australia.
Bloody destructobots going off everywhere.
I think the 55+ are concerned about the concentration of power forming. They want a balance from what I gather speaking to them, I’m a young spry young excitable whippersnapper of 51.
I’ve had to wrestle a bit with this myself. But after Telstra, WC and the Hick’s thing political jail timing and the Murray Darling 10 billion stunt with no treasury advice and all treasury planning and testing buried on too many issues. It was 15 bridges too far. As far as I’m concerned they went feral.
If they’d put Rudd up last time I would have switched anyway, because a decades too long, we dont know what we dont know that they might be hiding, me I think a couple of terms to get real stuff done, I would like to see a lot of policy bipartisan, the big ticket stuff some of which which to be fair Labor has signed off prior to election (voted with minor amends ignored). Which indicates to me some bonafides.
Diana said
Who on earth came up with the idea of taking the PM into Penrith Plaza on a rainy Friday two days after interest rates have been raised? Lindsay is lost, gone, kaput, the PM would have been better at Kirribili with his feet up watching the cricket. Through my work I learnt that the PM also visited Blacktown, getting all warm and fuzzy with a bunch of disability carers…that should have been the media high point of the day since Greenway is still a likely keeper…sad to say probably due to the influx of my mob, the Hawkesbury bogans, in the latest redistribution.
On another matter, I was polled online by Roy Morgan this afternoon. To my mind, and drawing on my Sociology statistics studies circa, well over 30 years ago, an extremely poorly composed poll structure. They asked age, gender, postcode; asked which party I am intending to give my first preference to; then they ask if you think the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. Now my honest answer to that question is ‘yes’ because I think the electorate is about to turf out a poor administration and install a more competent mob. But I know that if I answer ‘yes’ I will be classed as a ‘soft Labor’. They also showed the Coalition ad with the Whitlam and Hawke interest rates on it….and asked respondents to use a slider to give a positive or negative reaction. I cannot believe Morgans are getting paid to generate meaningless gumph from these type of ‘polls’.
Possum Comitatus said
Diana – you’ve been Morgan Reactored! It’s their version of the worm where they run through political advertisements and short speeches, and then stick the results up at places like Federalelection.com.au
Rod said
Psst, Poss, You got one of them. I hate to say it, though, but there is still another “68/48” typo lurking in “Update 2” , even after the original fix.
Cheers
Rod
Geoff Robinson said
Was looking over some unpublished research from the 1984 election the classic ‘late swing’ by ‘soft voters’. Approval of sitting Liberal MPs did help but the major factor that swung soft votes to the Liberals was niggling grievances like the assets test etc. In 2007 the functional equivalent of those issuses all favour Labor.
Possum Comitatus said
Oops, Ta Rod.
Rod said
Poss writes:
href=http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=14.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5>This is what 62/48 would look like on election night.
So , what do you reckon? Wilson Tuckey for Leader of the Opposition and John Forest for head of the Nats, given the need to avoid senior members having to defend marginals again next time round?
😉
Cheers
Rod
Big Blind Dave said
Can’t find the shannahan article anywhere on the Australian website and when i taunted politely in Deniss blog it got moderated into oblivion.
HarryH said
62-38 is laughable but after this weeks debacles i believe 57-43 56-44 is really on the cards this year and has been so for a longtime.
i believe NOBODY in the Labor Party are getting the correct internal polling except K Rudd, B Hawker and very very few others. their campaign has been incredibly disciplined and everyone is still pushing.no complacency,no early crowing, no betting plunges on seats.
on the other hand, it seems everyone associated with the Coalition knows just what a thrashing they are in for. they have been shambolic for months, ever since the attempted sinking of Rattus at apec.
Return with Interest said
That footage of the gormless Rodent is priceless. Kevin would have been in there giving mouth to mouth. It reminds me of the reaction of Jon Stanhope, jumping into a dam to save a pilot, whereas the rat shrunk away.
disenfranchised Gippslander said
Geoff Robinson, correct me if I’m wrong. but wasn’t 84 a long campaign? could this have soured some voters? also, the opportunistic early call of the election? Still, history is history, and voters could probably still remember 22% interest rates under Howard’s economic genius!
Enemy Combatant said
Got a feeling that Denny Boy has whored himself a car too far with his latest flit into fantasyland. The Political Editor of Citizen Rupert’s Oz Organ of Broadsheet Influence is basing the whole story on hearsay. The guy’s a freaking genius. A poobah of POL-FI, a doyen of dumbfuck stenography, a guru of guttersnipe goss, and lest we forget, a Shill’s- Best-Practice Professional.
————————————-
62/38. Got a kinda Zen feel to it doesn’t it?
Unfortunately, for the fortitudinally-challenged amongst the Officers and Ranks of The Rat Army, this poll will trigger the outbreak of widespread psychogenic diarrhoea, a malady that severely hampers campaign mobility outcomes going forward. (as the wizards at CT would say)
Bruce said
62/42 is simply not believable! It is completely inconsistent with the other polls.
What does Morgan do that’s so “special”?
Bruce said
I apologise that should be 62/38, but I’m not sorry and have no regrets. Or should that be I’m sorry but wont apologise, but am I regretful? Or maybe I regret…
Now I’m really confused…that I’m sure off!
Stephen T said
Steady boys been over for a long time. Saw the 7,000 unemployed boogoly boo. Oh! so scary. Smirky and the Stocking boy rabbiting on about evil unions and unemployment. Refutation from vehicle industry reps. It is all a crazy circus. Rodenty failed to play the hero. Troops would love to have that looser in action. Interest rate increase not factored in yet. Form here on in the GG is shot and Dennis must know he is looking more and more like suicidal Rodentus every day. I just wonder what the hell Rupert will make of this lot when he gets into town. Screw up at the top and he kicks very very hard. I bet little Denny is shitting himself. Rudd now has a fist full of bullets and I am sure he will use them at the appropriate time. This is most certainly not the outcome Murdock wanted. Gillard’s summary at the Press Club was first class yet was ignored by everyone. Blatant sexist crap. Possum you are spot on and remain a vital link. I certainly get the word around. Alls well at eight bells on flagship Rudd.
HarryH said
Possum’s original analysis and disection of the leaked Crosby_Textor ozTrack is the most enlightening piece of election journalism this year.
take your pick of any one of a hundred Sham-a-ham articles as the worst.
ShowsOn said
Here is a petition to encourage ABC’s Lateline to invite Paul Keating and John Hewson to jointly debate the election campaign on the night before election day:
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
I’ll pass it on to the ABC this time next week. So hopefully we can get 1000 or so signatures in that time.
You need to enter a valid email address, but just check PRIVATE so it doesn’t appear on the actual petition.
John Wriedt said
Bennelong (NSW) Gained ALP 10.6%…….
It's time said
I’ll double post here as Poll Bludger’s thread seems to have gone off on a tangent on refugees.
re the Morgan 62-38 poll
Irrespective of the veracity of the result, this is likely to have a disasterous effect on the morale of the coalition candidates and their campaign managers. Howard will try and reassure them that it’s an outlier and the party polling is good but, would they believe him? How many of them have the first idea about statistics?Isn’t the result more in tune with his earlier warning of disaster to the partyroom? And he’s been keeping the party polling close to his chest, so they will just have to trust him. Would he lie?
Oh the irony.
Lomandra said
I agree, It’s Time. There’ll be deep fear in the ranks, masked with jolly bravado. As has been said, when a swing’s on, a swing’s on. It takes on its own momentum, positive and negative, among government MPs and their staff, among Opposition aspirants, and among the electorate.
It seems quite impossible for the Howard government to recover at this point.
Lomandra said
John Wreidt, #63, sorry…. where’s that stat from? I must have missed a link….
Dave from Albury said
Possum, I don’t think that photo of the PM at the shopping centre gives the clearest picture of what happened. Apparently she admitted she was voting Labor and the aftermath can be seen here http://davefromalbury.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/howard_force.jpg
😉
Kirribilli Shredders said
My question is to the treasurer Mr Speaker!
My question to the treasurer refers to the finely tuned sportscar;
It appears that there is no one at the wheel and it has disappeared out of sight.
Where is the finely tuned sports car , who is at the wheel and where is it heading?
The Treasurer.
Thank you Mr Speaker and Mr Speaker I , ah Mr Speaker would like to remind those opposite that it is a finely tuned sports car Mr speaker and we have decided to paint it Mr Speaker and Mr Speaker the colour that we are painting it is Nipple Pink Mr Speaker as, Mr Speaker we are going, Mr Speaker , let me say Mr Speaker, full throttle Mr Speaker selling it to a mob of suckers. But Mr Speaker may I say this Mr Speaker, the answer to the first part of the question Mr Speaker is that the finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker has completely disappeared Mr Speaker when we were delivering it to the suckers, Mr Speaker.
The second part of the question as, Mr Speaker, as to who is at the wheel, well Mr Speaker let me just say this to that pit crew opposite, Mr Speaker, that It was me Mr Speaker, the worlds best treasurer, Mr Speaker, who was behind the wheel of this finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker, when it disappeared Mr Speaker.
You see Mr Speaker I took the car over to John’s place, Mr Speaker, and while we were there, Mr Speaker, we slipped outside a couple of reds Mr Speaker. John then, Mr Speaker, plucked up the courage and, Mr Speaker’ asked me to give him a ride on the, Mr Speaker, on the wild side Mr Speaker while we delivered it, Mr Speaker.
Now, Mr Speaker, now that I had him in the car, Mr Speaker, I can tell them the answer to the third part of the question Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker when we left John’s place , Mr Speaker, you have to understand that things were a bit Hazy, Mr Speaker, taking in to account that we knocked over five reds each, Mr Speaker, and I was traveling pretty fast, Mr Speaker, and then we crossed a bridge, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, I knew it was a bridge too far Mr Speaker, because all of a sudden we came to a fork in the road MR Speaker, and, Mr Speaker, not having traveled this difficult road before, Mr Speaker, I asked John, Which way John?, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, he pointed to the right Mr Speaker, so, Mr Speaker, that’s the road we traveled in the finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker.
Mr Speaker, you can imagine my horror, Mr Speaker, When I looked out the window and Mr Speaker, we were going flat out , Mr Speaker, along this road, Mr Speaker right beside the sea, Mr Speaker. That is when, Mr Speaker, I turned to John and told him I had not a clue where we were, Mr Speaker, and Mr Speaker he told me he did not, Mr Speaker, he did not have a clue where we were either Mr Speaker.
Well Mr Speaker you can’t help bad luck Mr Speaker, Here we were , Mr Speaker, having got the suckers to ,Mr Speaker, buy our finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker, and here we are Mr Speaker, lost near the sea on this lonely road, Mr Speaker.
Mr Speaker that’s when I looked out to sea, and , Mr Speaker, you would not believe it when I tell you, Mr Speaker, that Mr Speaker, this giant Tsunami just jumped up , Mr Speaker, Jumped up straight out of left field, Mr Speaker, and totally consumed the car Mr Speaker, I know they will not believe me Mr Speaker, but if they ask John he will tell them the same story Mr Speaker.
So, Mr Speaker, in answer to their question Mr Speaker;
Mr Speaker, in short, we crossed a bridge too far, John made me take the wrong fork in the Road, Mr Speaker, the wrong fork in the road Mr Speaker, whereupon this giant Tsunami, Mr Speaker, Jumped out and, Mr Speaker, it is the biggest Tsunami I have ever encountered Mr Speaker, and may I say Mr Speaker that the finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker, to put it mildly, Mr Speaker, well it is totally F^*@ed, Mr Speaker, the finely tuned nipple pink sports car, Mr Speaker, is a total disaster, Mr Speaker and the suckers will not even get to drive it Mr Speaker.
Mr Speaker, I hope they believe me.
Marrickville Mauler said
Alpal (39) – no, I would not at all expect Peter Shergold to be forced out, Rudd has said (including quite recently on ABC) that he is happy with him as a professional doing his job and I think he is telling the truth on this.
Shergold has a long and I think pretty honourable track record serving masters from both sides. And Rudd, let’s remember, will (ok I know I should say “would”, but hey, it’s 62:38 night) be our first ever PM who has actually been a professional head of a government department first.
I’d expect that even more obvious examples for the chop (hi Jane …) may well be given a chance to demonstrate their merits for a reasonable period, rather than Rudd allowing any incoming Minister to commit premature ejection of department heads.
donners said
Possum, the Howard video at Penrith is priceless
You can actually see his thought process in those desperate moments he just stares at her…
1. Is she drunk or on drugs?
2. Is she dead?
3. If I approach what will tomorrow’s headlines be…
“Howard’s campaign a knockout” or
“Voter dies during campaign meet and greet, so do Howard’s chances” or
“Howard soft on drug user, softer on drugs” or
“Howard election chances as dead as voter” or
Whatever the headline is it’s going to be bad…
4. Best move on and hope no-one notices, someone else will clear up the mess.
Whatever was on his mind it seemed to be all about him and not about the woman lying on the floor…
Possum Comitatus said
Dave from Albury – Cracker of a pic!
Donners – you are so spot on. The look on his face was one of fear, fear for himself.
Honestly, that type of stuff shits me to tears – if you see something happen like that you pull your finger out and help, especially when your in a position of some authority. You dont walk away because your image management might not go to script. It wasnt a good look because it wasnt a good thing to do.
If anyone sees or heres about a vid of that on youtube, let me know will you?
Kirribilli Removals said
Donners, the caption should be read after the Morgan poll:
Woman in shopping centre faints after seeing dead Rodent walking.
Suspected Illegal Entry Vessel XI said
Donners, it actually looked on the vid as if Howard was RUNNING away from her in the end, like some shit-scared schoolboy who just put a cricket ball through a neighbour’s window, ‘Let’s get outa here!’ – Priceless. Oh, and to all and sundry, let the evisceration of Denis The Menace begin!
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
A Caption if i may,
“Who else wants me to go to the Kyoto System???”
I’m reminds me of some lyrics “It’s nice to be important, but its more important to be nice”.
He might have managed to swing one or a hundred (to be optimistic***) votes over the remainder of the visit, but will probably lose many, many more votes with this story running in mainstream media. Maybe even of the 40+ers.
Doesn’t help she left the GP’s because the GP was too busy either.
***Newspolls high locked in voter numbers
[ All fixed… Poss ]
Muskiemp said
Last Monday Tony Abbot was in Bundaberg campaigning at a Private Hospital, along with Paul Neville, member for Hinkler.
I was with a group holding “Rights at Work” banners. Abbot & Neville offered their hand to the group to shake, I refused with great delight. Neville called me un-Australian and was only the 3rd person to refuse him in this campaign. Unfortunately the others did shake their hand and was given a promise by Abbot that nurses will never be put on AWA’s by this Government, even though he agreed with Work Choices.
Big Blind Dave said
NEWS UPDATE
Yeaterdays cumulative newspoll showed a 2% gain on primaries to ALP in WA. Thats right people ALP are gaining in WA!
Somehow “THE WEST” must have overlooked it and it was not mentioned in the paper at all.
Actually that was pretty predictable non news, sorry to bother you.
Diana said
Donners – yes the images appear to show our PM as completely unsymathetic to an injured person, meanwhile the Sydney media started the day lauding a 14yr old boy who jumped onto a trainline and pulled a much larger male to safety as a freight train thundered towards them:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/mythbusters-hail-hero/2007/11/09/1194329470352.html
Muskiemp said
The look on Abbot’s face was of a condescending b*s*ard and didn’t really care just saying that to calm the banner holders.
Enemy Combatant said
How can Australia elect a leader who has revealed himself to be a Rodent Samaritan? He’s failed the common code of human decency. Fair dinkum, you’d get shafted from the Boy Scouts for callousness like this. Drummed out of the bloody troop!
josh lyman said
Interesting to see the big difference in the 2 Morgan polls. It’s like people are ashamed to admit to someone face-to-face that they might vote Liberal!
ABC TV didn’t punish Howard much for the knockout – no coverage of that absurd facial expression or the scurrying away.
What do people make of Howard’s comment that the world isn’t about to end from climate change? http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/economy-trumps-enviro-pm/2007/11/09/1194329463139.html
My hunch is it will help Rudd, not Howard, because it helps Rudd play Howard as a climate sceptic and somehow manages to get the environment back on the agenda after 48 hours on the economy (ok, they weren’t a good 48 hours for the PM!). Hopefully ALP HQ will pump out a few more of the climate change ads we’ve been seeing to reinforce the message.
Kirribilli Removals said
Josh, climate change is the Achilles’ Heel of the Coalition. Recent polls showing that it’s a big concern prove just how divorced from reality Howard has been on this issue. But of course the big problem for Labor has been that you can’t bang on about it without sounding like Bob Brown (ie, Brown,Green and Pink). There’s a stigma to tree huggers that’s been part of the Howard ‘wedge’ for a decade, and Rudd must handle it with extreme care. He needed to tell the informed voters that he’s onto it, but also bring the not so convinced along with him without sounding like some hippy from the 70’s.
Tall order, but I think Rudd has just managed to thread the needle, even if dorky Pete hasn’t been overly helpful in his choice of airport lounge company.
Kirribilli Removals said
Poss, just watched Lateline, (recorded earlier, NSW) and saw your comment on PB, and wanted to say how much I enjoy Laura Tingle’s no nonsense take on it all. She’s on Adams’ Radio National gig once a week with Christian Kerr, and her odd, somewhat self-effacing personal style belies a very sharp mind and a great sense of the comic element to the political drama being played out. I reckon she’s worth a dump truck full of media maggots.And let’s not forget to mention that she’s virtually called Howard a dead rodent based on the numnbers. How many of the fourth estate have put their hands up for that? Eh?
booleanbach said
I just had a quick look at the iGoogle overlay site for the 2007 election.
Unless i am badly mistaken they have Rudd & Howard arse about in the graphs `and charts there!!!
Harmless Cud Chewer said
Possum, have you noticed that the Morgan face to face is not only trending up, but that it looks to be oscillating more and more wildly?
Any thoughts on that?
The other thing is, ok lets agree that it is a poor measure of the final outcome, but it must be measuring *something*. There’s gotta be a germ of truth in it somewhere. Any idea?
Firemaker said
Swio @ 40,
Sorry to be pedantic but pretty much all of the pollsters in 2004 didn’t get it wrong. Two of the pollsters got it right with ACN actually overstating the Coalition 2pp, Newspoll gave it a draw (50/50) while Morgan definitely got it wrong.
However Morgan and possibly Newspoll claim it was due to their distribution of minor party preferences.
bryn said
Nice laugh – 62/38 run through Antony’s calculator leaves 5 LNP seats precariously under 3%.
Kevin will have to wait till 2010 to mop these up – including Bronwyn, Brendan and the lovely Sophie.
Stilgherrian · John Howard sees scary poll, reveals super powers said
[…] tip: Possum’s Pollytics via the Snarky Platypus (sort […]
josh lyman said
Kirribilli Removals @ 81,
I basically agree, although I think Rudd has underplayed the differences too much on this issue. Ultimately he needs to make everyone believe (a) he takes CC seriously, and will actually do something about it, while also (b) not wrecking the economy (people really do want to have their cake and eat it on this one).
In the USA, the Right actually divvie up speaking roles so that someone is given talking points from the hard right, leaving Bush or whoever to sound more moderate. It’s called the radical flank effect. The point is that although they might seem to be disagreeing with each other or even criticising each other, it’s all part of a deliberate strategy to shift the entire debate to the right.
One day I’d like to see the left do this, and Howard has just given us a chance. Brown and Rudd should talk, and set it up so that Brown slams Howard as an idiot, no planet no economy, etc etc, allowing Rudd to play the ‘middle ground’, including being more distinct from the Libs but not ‘out there’ with Brown. It’s win-win for Labor and the Greens – Labor looks on top of the issue but safe, the Greens have their point of distinction, but nobody is actually shooting anyone except Howard.
Possum Comitatus said
Cud Chewer, the Morgan F2F is a pretty wild beast. Yet it has in the past picked up the impact of political events earlier than the other polls, but so saying that could just be due to chance since the F2F fluctuates fairly dramatically.
To me, and this is just personal opinion here (the quantitative evidence is ambiguous with this, but very weakly supports the theory), the Morgan polls, particularly the Face to Face polls seem to have a large ‘first impressions’ component in them, in that they seem to exaggerate in their vote estimations the way the political news of the day plays out in the minds of voters.
With the Coalitions bad week with Abbott and Co, and talk of interest rate rises (which were the big events in the news cycle when the poll was taken)- that could have lifted the the F2F results a few points, but it still looks to be at the upper end of the MoE. So the big movement in the poll looks to be a little bit driven by news and a lot driven by sampling error.
But this thing has been way above all the other polls for the ALP all year, so it is coming off what looks like a higher ALP vote level anyway that the F2F experiences.
josh lyman said
Gold from Annabel Crabb today – a formula for government responsibility for interest rates!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/annabel-crabb/for-grandma-read-interest-rates-then-spin/2007/11/09/1194329512847.html
“Let’s express governmental responsibility for interest rates as a percentage; call it n.
“In the interest of structured thought, I have devised a rough formula which, I think, makes the whole thing very clear.
“It is: 100 – [(a/b)/r x 1000] = n, where a is the number of seats held by the Coalition, b is the number of seats in the House of Representatives at the time, and r is the standard variable mortgage interest rate.
“If you take my little formula for a spin, you will find, for example, that in 1982, when John Howard was treasurer and the Coalition held 74 of the 125 Reps seats, mortgage rates peaked at 13.5 per cent but the government’s responsibility for this surge was quite low, at just 56 per cent.
“Seven years later, however, it was quite a different story.
“The Coalition, then in opposition, held 62 seats out of 148, so when rates hit a high of 17 per cent, the government responsibility rating was appreciably higher, at 75 per cent.”
carbonsink said
The Australian car industry is definitely in trouble, but it has nothing to do with Rudd and the unions, and everything to do with the strong Australian dollar.
Anyone in Australia that makes something locally that competes with imported Chinese product is in desperate, desperate trouble at the moment. As are exporters who price in US dollars and inbound tourism operators. The entire export sector is going down the tubes apart from the miners.
Australia’s trade deficit blew out to almost $2 billion for September. Did anyone notice? Did it make the news bulletins? Does anyone care?
The fact is Australia is being transformed into single sector economy by this resources boom. We are destined to become Quarry Australia, where no-one can afford to make anything or export anything, apart from dirt.
Kirribilli Removals said
carbonsink, I think that’s the thrust of Rudd’s campaign ie what happens when the mine runs out? In other words we could be a smart country (we do have a very good gene pool of smarts, lots of ‘can do’ attitude, and that irreverent attitude to the recieved wisdom that’s the rocket fuel of innovation), or we could sit on our backsides and let the dough roll in.
Rudd’s hit Howard on this issue and has gotten traction as the leader with a future.
disenfranchised Gippslander said
Morgan F2F results do seem to be oscillating wildly. Could this be the result of overzealous adjustment of sampling parameters?. Wild oscillations are a common result of over correction of controls in physical systems, as any one who has tried to correct a spin in an older motor car Knows.
Some weeks ago Morgan made a comment that they had abandonded weightings based on “previous voting patterns”, “some years ago”. At the time this comment seemed out of the blue, but it might indicate that he’s concerned about his stratifications and may be tweeking them too much.
but WTH, I’ve opined elsewhere that Morgan’s polls are a crock.
Completely off topic, mention of older cars and Morgan in the same post puts me in mind of the Morgan Inteceptor.. aahh! my beau ideal of a sports car!
disenfranchised Gippslander said
Carbonsink & Kirabilli, you’ve both hit the G spot for both the election and the economy. Rudd said that he’s passionate about Australian manufacturing.. but for God’s sake not sunset industries like petrol engine autos.. what about Solar or Hydrogen Cell? As a short term stopgap, why not an Australian manufactured diesel car?
I’m not an expert, or a visionary, but it’s time Australian entrepreneurs stopped overcharging for cardboard, or trying to grow rice in the desert, and put some thought into improving Australia.
Evan said
Re Update 3: I reckon the Government Gazette would be wise to print a correction in respect of the dodgy car industry story. While a certain amount of journalistic favourtism is expected and tolerated, there’s clearly a line that’s been crossed here.
And, as Unca Rupert knows, Labor has a very long memory.
Doug said
Possum
In an article in the Canbera times today on the mood in Beenelong by Jenna Price entitled “The MAX Factor” she closes on the following note:
“And the last word from the best-respected among australian political bloggers, the anonymous Possum Comitatus “But either way [this time] an ALP member will be representing Bennelong after the 2010 election. The slowly changing demographics of the seat are just too powerful” (Forum B!)
The bloggers are sargin to have an impact on the MSM. Peter Brent also gets an honorable mention
Jason said
Possum and readers – The ABC seems to have stopped adding reader comments to our Club Bloggery post – could be that the moderators are home for the weekend. Anyway we’ve reposted over at Gatewatching if anyone would like to have their two cents. Cheers, Jason.
Lindsay voter said
Muskiemp @ 75. At Penrith Plaza yesterday, there was a young chap named Alex who proffered his hand to Howard and then whipped his hand back. He was then prevented by police from following Howard.
Troy said
The PM should have helped the poor woman? Yes, but … how? I wasn’t aware he had medical training. What could have done? Tickled her face? Given her mouth-to-mouth? You can imagine the response: “Howard tries to make political capital out of injured woman.” I’d be interested to know, what would Kevin Rudd have done in the same situation? That said, I hope the poor woman fully recovers.
S said
Troy@99: Rudd would have simply healed her with a touch of his hand.
🙂
Steve K said
I don’t like Howard – in fact I detest him. If his minders were smart they’d make sure that the following message was passed on to journos:
“The PM ‘moved on’ to ensure the media pack followed and therefore allowed the woman some air and her ‘assistants’ some space.”
Grumps said
Poss,
Feel the need to dump some grumps on you. I do believe Rudd will remove the rodent at the next election, (listening to dolly on RN, and others they are sounding flat and reverting to extremely old habits),but,the economy is a worry.
Last time the rodent sat in the treasurey benches he left with high intrest rates (Peak 21.39% for 90 day Bank Bills April 1982 average of 11.8% for 90 day bills for Fraser years), a period of stagflation, labour force militancy and unrest, loss of public services (razor gang), loss of jobs & industries, rorting of taxation system in the bottom of the harbour schemes…. My how things haven’t changed a lot.
At least at this time we still had trade schools giving us a constant pool of the specialised trades required by our buisnesses. This spilled over into university graduates thanks to Gough’s push for free tertiary education.
Though the factors acting on the economy are different I am afraid the Rodent will leave behind a economic mess that labor will inherit yet again. Ammerica is not looking good given 6 years of Bush and a little war, poor home lending techniques, etc. etc.. China’s bubble will have to burst soon, dwindling cheap oil, youall know the rest.
The rodent has form for this. See how he sacrificied Amanda Vanstone to keep that souless twerp, I have a badge in my lapel, Ruddock out of da shit. Other exmaples abound.
Finished clearing the spleen.
Looking at Bryan Palmers graphs, note the erractic nature for the Morgan F2F. But notice that it trends pretty well with the other charts (refer Coalition Primary Vote: Henderson Moving Average chart) http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/
Could the F2F be an early indicator of movement? Is it worth you applying some of GG Shanananana busting techniques to this problem? If not could you give a explanation for a dummy? Ta..
Bert said
If you want my quick analysis of where the rodent has left us here it is ..
Cutbacks in in Federal funds for education in general. From universities all the way to Labors training schemes.
Health systems forced to survive on a drip, while bolstering the PRIVATE health funds.
Cutbacks in research and development.
Failure to support emerging industries.
Lack of infrastructure improvement.
There are more!
Rode the wave of massive increases in the cost of homes due to ‘low interest rates’ and so allowing the punters to think they were ahead.
Sold off nearly all the assets of the People of Australia for a song.
Allowed the balance of payments to get to 60% of GDP. Remember the Debt Truck?
Shall I go on?
Divided the community on nearly every available racist or group differences.
I am sure there are many more.
When we wake up on the 25th of Nov 2007 after a Labor win, we will find out the true state of the ECONOMY very soon after. I guarantee it will not be a pretty sight.
The Howard Government has LIED on nearly every front! What makes you think the ECONOMY is not sancrosact.
Of course as usual they did not know, they were not told etc etc….
Sorry folks but that is the reality!
This could be what the libs have up their sleeve?
Bert
KeepingALidOnIt said
Those graphs at ozpolitics are fascinating. I was particularly taken by the 2PP election results for all governments since 1949. Amazing how the LPA’s vote has come off a high of 57% in 1965 down to around 53% in 2004. Conversely the ALP’s vote is around the 53% mark. So if Rudd gets more than that, it is a record for the ALP. Overall, it seems to indicate that either we are becoming less conservative as a nation, or that the ALP is becoming more conservative – I suspect the latter, but it really opens up an interesting debate.
Bert said
I forgot about the worlds best treasurer who changed the accounting methods so every thing can be hidden, including his Foreign Exchange losses of 4.5 billion dollars.
I wont even mention the two billion dollars spent on advertising and tens yes tens! of billions od dollars buying crappy outdated defence equipment from our best ally.
Fiscal rectitude indeed!
Bert
Greeensborough Growler said
I think Malcolm might try some rectal fistitude
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/10/2087354.htm
Bert said
You know a lib is desperate when they go for the gay vote! Malcolm is way out of his depth. It is one thing to sway a jury that are captive but the general populace?
Next he will be advocating signing Kyoto!
Bert
GetReal said
that’s very naughty, GG, but very funny….lets see the other GG quote that line as its far funnier than shanahan’s duplicity
adam said
Hi all…
I mentioned in an earlier post that I was expecting some kind of fiscal ineptitude to come out after the election. Now if that occurs, and the Morgan poll washes out close to accurate… (a big ask, but bear with me…)
Try this: an “opposition”, tainted by ineptitude in its core promise, comprised of
NATIONALS: 3 safe seats…
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton (0.6%)
Riverina (NSW) Kay Hull (6.1%)
Maranoa (QLD) Bruce Scott (6.3%)
Mallee (VIC) John Forrest (10.0%)
John Forrest is probably federal leader, due to seniority & tradition of choosing a lower house member. Watch Barnaby’s space in this event (and in any future).
LIBERALS: 1 safe seat, 9 marginal seats…
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop (0.8%)
Indi (VIC) Sophie Mirabella (1.6%)
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley (1.9%)
Bradfield (NSW) Brendan Nelson (2.9%)
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke (3.7%)
Groom (QLD) Ian Macfarlane (4.1%)
Moncrieff (QLD) Steven Ciobo (4.8%)
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker (5.2%)
O’Connor (WA) Wilson Tuckey (5.7%)
Murray (VIC) Sharman Stone (9.4%)
What a shit fight this would be. Gimme the tiller on the lifeboat, you bastards (No, me!). This small-but-not-small-enough group throws everything out in doing numbers. Brendan Nelson leader with Ian Mcfarlane deputy would be likely, but given the boisterous nature of Alex Hawke’s rise, we could see a brutal campaign of infighting. Hawke being a Sydney bone-dry, it’s likely he would be aiming to blow an ideological hole in the boat and bleed the rump even drier.
Should this occur, we’d also have 23 seats marginal for Labor under 4%. We could expect these to swing to the Opposition next time, whomever that might be…
As rough advice for the Greens in that situation, they could therefore go after the seriously marginal seats held by the Coalition (Hawke and lower) while also targeting the above mentioned marginals on the Labour side, using a simple policy slogan:
“Rebuilding Australia’s Opposition for our future”.
After all, you can only be the credible alternative if you can start as the Opposition. The Liberals’ only hope would be avoiding Alex Hawke’s Scylla and Charybdis of ideology. Interesting times, where the Liberals might gradually become the Trots of the Right….
Rod said
So you aren’t going for my suggestion of Wilson Tuckey as the new Lib leader (see post #52) to accompany Forrest , then, Adam? 😉
Cheers
Rod
dosi said
pic of howard and the fallen woman at the shopping center with him saying:
“listen b*tch, you’ve never been better off, so get up because i’m nto going to aplologise.”
v. funny……
Stephen T said
Get a life fellas. You obsessive compulsive election personality types need a bit of calm and quite. It’s a done deal over shredded cut and dried. move on.
Stephen T said
Opps! Don’t mean the good analysis types just the baggers.
Greeensborough Growler said
From Poll Bludger,
“Daily Telegraph Bennelong poll on Monday: said it will shock seasoned political observers. This was featured on today’s front page along with a picture of Maxine, which makes me think it might be more bad news for the Rodent.”
Apparently, it is a story that no concerned parent can afford to miss.
Ken Boyne said
Has John Howard become the new Mark Latham?
KDB
Michael said
Possum (tried posting this to PB but didn’t work for some reason):
I am curious how polsters would go about sampling in an area like Wentworth which has various pockets with vastly different types of voters whose voting pattern would not accord with what you would expect in the usual demographic categories In wentworth, it’s not just income, age or occupation which might influence how someone might vote – for example there is the jewish vote around vaucluse and the gay vote around potts point and darlinghurst.
Evan said
GG at post 106: “I think Malcolm might try some rectal fistitude..”
Hmmm….. could be worth a vote or two down at the Beauchamp on Oxford Street.
Aristotle said
“Sky News will launch a ground breaking seven screen service to cover every aspect of Election 07 Day and Night.
The seven channels will include “Main News Election 07″, “Howard”, “Rudd”, “Reaction”, “Tally Room”, plus 3 other channels showing results from individual seats in detail and other news. Sky News will also have teams at the Howard event in Sydney, and the Rudd event in Brisbane. “
Which is nice and all, but they just dont have Antony.
True, and they also don’t have Florida, Jeb Bush and the U.S. Supreme Court.
Rod said
Dosi wrote:
““listen b*tch, you’ve never been better off, so get up because i’m nto going to aplologise.”
Shouldn’t that read “Sorry, sorry, sorry , listen b*tch, you’ve never been better off, so get up because i’m not going to apologise.”
😉
Possum Comitatus said
Thanks Greeny – another Bennelong poll eh?
Galaxy – the official pollster for Bennelong. 😉
Michael at 116
You’re right, Wentworth is hard to poll, so what the Coalition have been doing is running normal polling in conjunction with carefully selected focus groups to overlay the raw data with a bit of nuance. Oddly, I havent heard much about what the ALP is currently doing on the ground in Wentworth in terms of opinion research.
Ari –
Steve_E said
The on message message (or some convolution of Marshall McLuhan)
The Howard-Costello Government has switched its re-election plea for a fourth time in four weeks. From the promise of a full employment society, to the fear of a world financial tsunami, to the risk of higher interest rates under Labor, to now, perhaps most implausible of all, the threat that Kevin Rudd as PM would mean 400,000 people losing their jobs, despite what all experts agree is a ferociously tight labour market. [George M. The Australian 10/11/07].
This just shows what happens when the CT textbook is exhausted. whatever happended to the idea of staying on message – yes you do have to have ONE.
In some way the shopping centre and lady knocked out by all the fuss charterizes the LIBS re-election campaign.
1. Things stuff up.
2. No idea of what to do when things stuff up.
3. Interest Rates
4. AWAs.
ismark said
We owe John Howard a great debt of gratitude,
His determination to lead this nation into his vison of the future has lead us to a great new world. Thanks to his small mindeness and absolute determination to retain power at all costs he has saved us from a dictatorship more putrid than that of Mugabie. Had the electorate actually been given a reasonable choice we might be looking at a very different future.
Roll on the 24th, Australia’s Independence Day.
Ismark
adam said
rod at 110:
in that small a field, tuckey’s in with an even chance…
Rod said
Steve_E writes:
“whatever happended to the idea of staying on message – yes you do have to have ONE.”
I think the problems for the Libs with this philosophy this time around Steve, are that:
1) Nobody really believes any of the fear based messages they have used for the last few elections any more. You can only cry wolf so often.
2) Once you lose your credibility like this it gets much, much, harder to sell any new message
3) The Libs electoral opportunism over an extended period of time has worn very, very, thin with the voters.
4) The party has been decrying intellectual approaches to just about everything for so long that they no longer have the ability or the personnel to think their way out of such problems. The funny side of the “culture wars” is that it has resulted in a situation where anyone with half a brain knows they have to stay as far away from the Libs as possible if they want to maintain any real intellectual credibility. Ultimately they have suffered from a major “brain drain” as a result. Anti-intellectualism has a certain gut appeal in some quarters , but ultimately you still some decent minds to win elections. Relying on second rate hacks like Henderson, Brunton , and Windshuttle saps the ability of a party to deal with real problems as they arise.
5) At the other end of the spectrum playing the jingoistic Aussie line while sucking up to GWB to the point where we look like 50 whateverth state just doesn’t cut it. Just about all Australians know that we have things here that make the US look pretty second rate. When it comes to taking on board US employment and health practices the vast majority of Australians know they are way better off with what we had beforehand.
6) People may well think that the Libs are good for “The Economy”, but they now recognise that what Howard talks about when it comes to “The Economy” simply means that the top 1% of income earners are doing very nicely indeed thank you, and the next ten percent aren’t fairing too badly either , but it does b&gger all for most of the rest. “The Economy” is now seen as synonymous with “the top end of town”. It is simply not seen as the same thing as “my own hip pocket” any more. Workchoices destroyed that illusion. “Sorry, but I’m not apologising” over interest rates simply reminds most people (89% of voters) that the emperor has no clothes.
7) When people feel they have been conned on one level they get much more sceptical about other things. Children Overboard, Tampa, Haneef, Climate scepticism etc etc have all taken their toll. Howard no longer has much “good faith” left to play with. This flows on into a host of other issues.
Ultimately the Howard Libs have got to a point where “one message” simply won’t cut it. There are simply too many others that they are losing on, and too little belief in what they say, for any single line to get any traction. Instead they have to mess about trying to graft a little bit here, a little bit there. It clearly won’t be enough.
Cheers
Rod
Peachy said
#121 I agree Steve_E, Howards compaign appears now to be in complete disarray, and is starting to degenerate into farce.
If they are desperately switching message this late in the campaign, it suggests that they might have some research showing that their message is not cutting through. So they are desperately flailing about, hoping to push the right button.
This stuff about ‘Jobs,jobs,jobs’ that Howard is going on about is just rubbish, it’s Howard who has threatened their job security, not Labor! – he’s mad if he thinks he can win on this debate, but I guess it shows that they now beleive that it is a referendum on Workchoices, and unless they can change peoples minds about it then they are finished. Don’t like their chances!
I’m hoping that it also suggests that their interest rate ads are not working. If that is the case I am very happy – if the interest rate scare is not working then the libs have no chance, unless they pull out the nukes and start firing incredible amounts of personal smear at Rudd. But I don’t think that will work either, will just turn people off Howard even more.
Kay said
“7) When people feel they have been conned on one level they get much more sceptical about other things. Children Overboard, Tampa, Haneef, Climate scepticism etc etc have all taken their toll. Howard no longer has much “good faith” left to play with. This flows on into a host of other issues.”
And don’t forget SIEVX in this list.
Kay
John V K said
Interest rates and Work choices is what the election is about.
Trying to tack other things on is not proven and not tested.
The Tampa turned Howard’s corner with S11 incumbency but the lies started his “nice” problem. By nice I mean people want a leader they like but they will accept one they don’t like as long as he is doing the job fair. We all accept people we dont like everyday because we don’t live in lollipop land. As for climate scepticism he actually split himself wide open, skeptics like me found his switch position wrong (I am not here to debate climate hysteria with hystericals there are other fora for that) but he split himself.
As a farmer up our way, put it, “Had a dog like that, was a mongrel but was good with the cattle, then one day he wasn’t any good with the cattle anymore and the bastard tried to bite me one day too many, got a new dog”.
So the interest rate thing really ramps the trust issue he has, because of the work choices and he was never liked, his strength was always better leader not nice guy. No one not even former hugger would ever use the word like as relationship descriptor, gets the job done, Mr Practical would be more apt as descriptor in the past.
The previous behaviours maybe amplifiers at most but they are not vote turners because if they were they’ve already turned the votes of the people they most effect and I know this will upset a lot of people of the left who like to despise Mc Mansions people, but it’s not Tampa and it’s not a lot of things like that, that will decide it this time around. Work choices and Interest rates are the issues.
devalpo said
Seems to be that this rates rise benefiting the coalition by bringing debate back to the economy is as bogus as the narrowing.
Otoh, the two weeks to go and people are only now starting to tune in meme seems quite plausible. And it fits neatly with the unmovable polls. Possum, I don’t s’pose youve got any bright ideas on how to test this thesis? Not that it would offer John and his mates more than a ghost of encouragement, but still.
John V K said
Now Glennys states Labor is going to do a smear campaign.
Vote Howard get Costello that is not a smear. That was dumb and dumb and quick bodge when they should have ditched Howard and Costello as architects of Work choices and got new faces in that could apologise and promise on Work Choices. I’d rather pull my own teeth without a pain killer than vote Costello.
Howard is old again, not a smear, Liberals have attacking youth and inexperience all year.
Howard on Trust again not a smear, Howard did that himself.
Of course they are going to attack Howard but the Whinging Wendy ad is not rude and gets the point across.
And Nick MInchin stating a mandate, someone should tell him it’s time to stop digging when you can’t see the sky.
Aspirational Aspirationalist said
Possum, you asked for links to Youtube Video’s.
Fake Handshake in Penriff (sic)
Ten News intro showing aftermath of knockdown
(Its not really what your after, but all i’ve found.).
Leopold said
With due respect, I’m reasonably certain the 55-45 ACN was a standard phone poll, not an online one. Certainly the numbers in La Grattan’s article at the time compared it with the 48-42 phone poll from the first week rather than with the previous online poll.
Mr Palmer at OzPolitics seems to have said the same thing you did though, so maybe I’m wrong.
Diana said
Ah, now Howard’s camping out in Lindsay over the past couple of days makes more sense. My opinion is that a policy like paid maternity leave is vital if the Libs are to have any chance in Lindsay. These electorate appearances mean saturation coverage in the local newspaper this week, which chimes in with the campaign launch and new policy announcements. The good folk of Lindsay prefer their local rag to the usual mainstream print media. I did email a suggestion to the ALP about releasing a paid maternity leave policy earlier in the campaign, but hey, what would nana know about tactics?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-to-woo-mums-with-paid-leave/2007/11/10/1194329563882.html
Speaking of strategy suggestions, I can’t believe that Miranda Devine thought her interview with the Howards in todays Sun-Herald would be helpful to the cause. The focus was meant to be on Janette, with the PM just ‘sitting in’. The result is that JWH is seen throughout the article providing ‘me too’ to Janette’s opinions. Forget the text, the message is ‘hen-pecked’.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tagteam-assault-by-howards/2007/11/10/1194329563863.html
Andos the Great said
On a different topic;
Who saw “The Insiders” this morning?
Piers Akerman was in rare form, it has to be said. I haven’t heard so much Liberal Party propaganda in a single hour since the “Leaders’ Debate”. Seriously, he certainly wasn’t subtle about which team he was batting for.
He definitely pissed off Barrie and the rest of the panel. I’m sure we got some global warming scepticism, a dash of old-time misogyny, and some quite personal criticism of Lenore Taylor’s journalism with regards to her interviews of Garrett and Turnbull.
Did anyone else feel the same way, or was it just me?
Rod said
I thought Taylor absolutely wiped the floor with Akerman, Andos.
Chers
Rod
Peachy said
One interesting thing that this election will test is the oft-touted notion that “governments don’t get voted out when the economy is strong”. Personally I think that what the polls show this year is that most voters couldn’t give a stuff about macro-economics, or lofty discussions about “surplusses, unemployment, inflation” etc.
What they care about is how they personally are travelling. A strong set of economic figures means nothing to the electorate if they feel like they are struggling. And telling them that they have “never had it so good” clearly infuriates people when they know they are doing it tough. That’s why Howard went for the massive tax cuts. Because you can’t convince people that a “strong economy” is good unless they get to see the benefits of it.
The interesting thing to see will be whether Howard and co manage to convince people that they will still be better off under the Coalition than under Labor. They don’t trust howard, I don’t think they ever did on any sort of meaningful moral level. The question is, will they still trust him to keep interest rates lower than Labor, and if so, does this outweigh their dislike of Workchoices and their lack of job security/removal of working conditions. It’s a much harder argument to make this time around than it was in 2004.
The most important message in the campaign on either side is always what is carried in their blanket advertising in the last two weeks. Predictably, howard is running a scare campaign on interest rates and the economy (unemployment), Labor is running on Workchoices and trying to undermine Howards credibility on interest rates. Howard is a long way behind, he will need to get a really big bounce out of his advertising campaign to be in with a chance.
canberra boy said
Diana (#132) – the Miranda Devine article you point to confirmed my long-held view that Hyacinth winds him up every morning, gives him a fresh hanky, and sends him off to work with the admonition “now remember, John, dear, you are the Prime Minister…”
My first reaction, when I opened my treeware copy of the Sun Herald earlier today, was that Miranda Devine has got away with two full pages of appalling Howard propaganda about Rudd being an economic illiterate, under cover of a John-&-Hyacinth-at-home Sunday puff piece. She really is a shameless right-wing ideologue.
Andos the Great said
CB @ 136:
…and she reads these threads, too, so don’t hold back.
happy chap from Griffith said
Nah right on track Andos. Akerman was a joke- he’s starting to make Bolt look like a socialist! Some one really needs to pull that bloke aside and give him a talking to.
happy chap from Griffith said
Alpal @ 39.
I agree. I’ve heard, from pretty reliable sources, that Shergold is toast. Though I guess at the end of the day this will depend on the dynamics of the last two weeks of the election. The smart money would probably be on him jumping post-24 without the push.
Diana said
Family First have preferenced Pauline Hanson ahead of the Greens and Democrats in Queensland. Steve Fielding has defended this on the basis of ‘common sense’. Not this little black duck’s definition of common sense!
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1194745290638&magsection=news&title=Fielding+defends+Hanson+prefs+deal&source=/_xmlfeeds/home/feed.xml
happy chap from Griffith said
Did anyone else see Minchin’s claim (on Meet the Press this morning) that the Greens were the most ‘extreme’ party this nation has ever seen? A bit rich I would have thought considering the radical tendencies of Hanson, Nile, Nazis, Socialist Alliance etc. I couldn’t believe Bongiorno didn’t pick him up on this load of fucktardery**
**hat tip to Poss for this great piece of lingo
adogge said
>>…and she reads these threads, too, so don’t hold back.<<
Dear Miranda,
What did you actually do over at News Limited to wind up almost overnight working at Fairfax with “never to return” stamped on your news file?
Love,
The Public.
Enemy Combatant said
Displaying none of his long dormant sense of shame, El Rodente bent down(clip on Insiders) for an edifying, fully staged photo-op hug with a terminally-ill child.
This cheap stunt reeks of CT-spun response to Ratty’s stone-hearted Cut and Run from the “fallen woman” at Penrith mall on Friday.
What next? Flinging coins at Street Kids on his dawn walk while blissing out on his iPod to The Choir OF Hard Knocks?
Rod said
happy chap wrote:
“Nah right on track Andos. Akerman was a joke- he’s starting to make Bolt look like a socialist! Some one really needs to pull that bloke aside and give him a talking to.”
Piers A., Shanahan and Bolt are really manna from heaven for Labor.
In a situation where people are sceptical about the offerings of the current mob in Canberra they keep on pushing the very sort of issues that have turned people against Howard. Whenever they open their mouths (or push their pens) it is as if they want to remind the electorate of why you simply CAN’T trust Howello (or should that be Costard? 😉 ). The clichés, the arguments long ignored or abandoned by most Australians, the complete disconnection with most of the world of real Australians today inevitably come pouring out.
I sometimes wonder whether the three of them are really closet socialists trying to make sure that the Coalition gets destroyed to the point where they have no hope of recovery. 😉
Cheers
Rod
The Doctor said
[quote]I agree. I’ve heard, from pretty reliable sources, that Shergold is toast. Though I guess at the end of the day this will depend on the dynamics of the last two weeks of the election. The smart money would probably be on him jumping post-24 without the push.
Comment by happy chap from Griffith — November 11, 2007 @ 3:26 pm [/quote]
[b]Shergold’s contract ends within a few months.[/b]
TC said
If you only play the short game, then defeat is always a bitter experience. If you play the long game, some elections are ‘good ones to lose’ – bad economic conditions are good times to be in Opposition. The 1990 election was one such election. Had Peacock prevailed, the Libs would have been tarred with the recession and 17% interest rate brush. But history records Labor won, and then presided over the 1991 recession. Thirteen years later, that memory assisted Howard’s central message on the economy setting up a win in 2004. I would speculate, and this is just a guess, than 2007 will come to be seen as another ‘good one to lose’. We’ve had 16 years of uninterrupted growth – this can’t continue indefinitely, unless the business cycle has died (it hasn’t). Recent statistics suggest global inflation is stirring. (It has to – how can you introduce 2 billion new consumers into the global economy without some inflation?) We might see a nasty spike in interest rates (100 to 200 basis points) in the next year or so. If my guess is correct, then one of Kevin Rudd’s central points as Opposition leader – “the cost of living is squeezing working families, let me address it with my fresh thinking” – could ring very hollow. Opposition leader Peter Costello will be ready to return to the control panel in 2010, just in time for the economy to start healing again.
Rod said
If the Libs lose, TC, I doubt that Costello will really stick around for any aftermath.
He’ll be back playing the scene he started with – doing the corporate law dance for “Dollar Sweets” et al at a thousand bucks a minute.
Far more lucrative, no need to fight the dominant NSW Libs (both “conservative” and “progressive”) who probably won’t really let him take over even if he crawls over burning coals.
Lets face it. The next leader of the Libs won’t be Costello (other than as an interim sacrificial lamb).
He has done his dash. He didn’t take the chance when it was available to him.
The next real leader of the Libs will be either Abbott or Turnbull, (though Freaky Downer might fill therole again for a while until they sort out the numbers).
The fight won’t be nice and it will take a long time for them to recover from . Abbott and Turnbull are ideologically far, far, farther apart than even the hard left and the hard right of the Labor Party!
Rod
Kirribilli Removals said
Have to agree with both you, TC and Rod. Firstly, the inflation dragon is well and truly being awakened from its lair, (with a good helping hand from Unlce Pete and Grandpop Howard with their magic puddin’ tax cuts) and the next government is going to have a highwire act with not a lot of padding underneath.
As for the Cheshire Smirk, he’ll disappear completely from politics leaving nothing but the memory of his silly grin. The blood letting after this election (even in the remote case of a Liberal win by its fingernails) will be something to behold, and Costello gets it in the neck no matter which way it breaks. He didn’t roll Howard when the world knew he hated him and his policies, then he signed up as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice for this last throw of the dice for the old man.
He’s history no matter what. That smirk will never be sitting opposite PM Rudd, the thought of it is utterly cringe worthy in any case!
canberra boy said
Re Peter Shergold comments at #s 39, 139 & 145:
I’m not so sure whether Shergold would go. I don’t know whether Rudd’s period in the Brisbane senior bureaucracy involved contact with Shergold, but if it did I would not be surprised if the new PM respects Shergold’s talent. I’m afraid I’m not in touch enough with the Labor powers-that-be to know whether Dr Shergold went too far in helping to implement WorkChoices. But let’s not forget that he came to Canberra via recruitment from academia in 1987 to head the new Office of Multicultural Affairs at PM&C: that was in the Hawke era, and his career prospered under Hawke and Keating. He could be a formidable assistant to PM Rudd. Then again, perhaps we’ll see the old Qld mafia brought back? Glyn Davis is also a formidable talent (and a very nice person when I was briefly acquainted with him 30-odd years back, too)
Doug said
Rudd was vry clear on Lateline on Friday night that thee would be no night of the Long knives in the APS leadership.
what we will have, on the basis of his comments is a gradual easing out of people who ae not comfortable in working with a new government following admin orders restructuring, that might well be substantial.
A couple of people might decide to go on their own initiative. Dr Boxall is a likely candidate given that his department, DEWR is likely to be restructure out of existence
Peter T said
re TC at 146 and a few others – inflation has been coming down world wide – regardless of ecocomic or monetary policies – for some years. If Fischer’s fairly plausible analysis (see The Long Wave) is correct, the underlying driver is demographic. So likely to keep under control regardless. The issues for Rudd will be income distribution, given that prolonged low inlation tends to favour the haves, and the ever more evident effects of global warming. Latter should favour Labor, as hard times tend to make people more “collective” in their attitudes. Unless Turnbuull survives what looks like inevitable rout and manages to take the Libs in a new direction (bit hard to see, but…)
Peter T
steve said
Newspoll is out with no narrowing and 10 point margin maintained.
CK said
And Dennis, on song as always:
“THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html
No tables as yet.
CK said
Meanwhile, in some grudging admissions:
“On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the last election, Labor’s support jumped from 53 per cent to 55 per cent and the Coalition’s fell to 45 per cent.
Mr Howard’s credibility took a severe blow last week, after promising to keep interest rates low during the 2004 election, and satisfaction with the job he is doing dropped from 49 to 46per cent. Dissatisfaction with Mr Howard rose marginally to 47 per cent.
Satisfaction with Mr Rudd, who attacked Mr Howard’s management of the economy following the rate rise, was virtually unchanged on 62 per cent and dissatisfaction was 25per cent.
Support for Mr Howard as preferred prime minister dropped from 43 to 40 per cent and Mr Rudd’s support was steady on 48 per cent.
But even after the rate rise and some slippage in support, Mr Howard remains the clear choice of voters on the issue of who is best able to manage the economy, with a lead of 14 percentage points. Before the rate rise, Mr Howard recorded a rating of 51 per cent on the issue, compared with Mr Rudd’s 32 per cent. The latest Newspoll shows support for Mr Howard slipping to 49 per cent and Mr Rudd’s jumping three points to 35 per cent.
The two leaders are back where they were two weeks before the election was called. “
occamiser said
Hey, Happy Chap
Re Minchin’s fucktardery: I think he actually called the Greens ‘extreme radical’. The adjective struck me as inelegant, if not totally redundant. Minchin struck me the same way.
Harmless Cud Chewer said
*happy moo*
Enemy Combatant said
55/45. Yeah CK, The Shillster is a Narrowist Diviner in search of a Y stick.
happy chap from Griffith said
Re Peter Shergold comments at #s 39, 139, 145, 149
Hey Canberra Boy,
I also heard from QLD-sources that Glyn is pretty well ensconced down at UMelb and thus is a non-starter. The tip I was given by the same QLD-sources was that the new bloke is coming from the office of a certain southern State Premier, apparently a very smart chap with a great policy head. Thus, while I think you’re correct not to completely discount the possibility of Shergold sticking around, I’d be putting my money on him being gone within a couple of months should Ruddwalker achieve the Ruddslide.
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