Antony’s New Toys
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 5, 2007
Over at the ABC Election site , Antony Green has some new spiffy toys to play with.
First up there’s a Senate Calculator, which means you’ll need the Group Voting Tickets to help.
And there’s now a spiffy drop down menu on the Election Calculator that allows you to load up polls automatically to do things like this:
Possums Pollytics 
K Jin said
Possum your position in the scheme of things was like William’s
I hope u realise, That that all that glitters is not gold.
F##K crikey. Off 2 the races for all of us.
Not shame but foolish William Bowe
Possum Have your own adds, William has shot his load for brass and missed the golden ring. Unlike Christian kerr be comfortable in your own skin
Enemy Combatant said
Sanctuary! Sanctuary!
The Bludger’s having teething problems with his three week gig at Crikey. And LP still appears to be down. However Mr. Green’s new gizmo is just the ticket to help while away those idle hours between now and E-Day.
Possum, one of the greatest joys and a part of the spice of your site is it’s spontaneity. Going through a moderator at Crikey spoils a lot of the fun. Dampens creativity. Downright appreciate that you remain open all hours.
George said
Wow – that is way cool! I am expecting some big things from the ABC site and Antony’s section come election night. I’ll have the TV on and next to it will be a nice big 30″ Dell LCD with Antony’s page, amongst other stuff. Should be great for us quantitative geeks!
George said
Oh, and agree with what Enemy Combatant says about Crikey.
Possum Comitatus said
That Senate calculator is a pretty snazzy piece of work.
EC, strangely more and more comments here are getting moderated by accident, with Askimet thinking they’re spam. Funnily enough it seems to be the more well known you are, the more likely it is you end up in the bin. Antony Green ends up there nearly every comment, and there’s a journo that posts here regularly and he always ends up there as well.
Unfortunately I have absolutely no control over Askimet except the ability to fish people out of it.
George said
You know what would be cool Poss – I calculator where you could adjust each seat’s swing and then all other seats would adjust based on the overall poll swing recorded. In this way, when you predict a particular (say marginal) seat wont fall, all other seats would need to absorb the overall national swing plus the lack of a swing in a specific seat(s).
If I had the time, I would build it for fun 😉
Possum Comitatus said
That would be heaven on a stick George.
I built this massive electoral matrix for the Pollycide series, and the Linear Programming involved just kept on getting larger and more complicated the further I went into it, to derive the results out of the Quarterly Newspoll. One of those little gadgets would have been superb and have made my life far less complicated over the last few months! Unfortunately as a programmer I make a wonderful ballerina.
George said
Yeah, know what you mean Poss. Honestly, if I wasn’t involved in a large roll-out development for our US customers, I’d dedicate some resources to this… who knows, maybe there will some time in the coming week 🙂
Ratsak said
George, if there was a Nobel prize for psephy stuff, you’d win it hands down for that. Antony though has the inside running for the Senate toy. I can’t imagine what a six week campaign is doing for national productivity, but with Antony, Poss and PB it can’t be good.
Greeensborough Growler said
Just so yers knows.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/11/05/the-larvyprodders-regret/
josh lyman said
OK, so Antony’s senate gizmo is giving me the creeps. Says here that the Fishing Party could well win the 6th Senate seat.
I’ve run the numbers heaps of times, and what I’m getting is:
If Fish (FP) > One Nation after hoovering most of the micros (which they will do), and FP + ONP > CDP, and FP + ONP + CDP > CCC + FF + Dems, then the Fishers will win with CCC prefs!
Plausible numbers for that scenario start with FP getting just 1.7% after collecting the micros, not likely but not impossible.
Remember that the Fishing Party does not believe in anthropogenic climate change, so what are the Climate Change Coalition doing giving them preferences ahead of the Greens???
Possum Comitatus said
Josh, it’s the joys of the Senate where generally the smaller parties simply dont know what the F*** they’re doing.
josh lyman said
true poss, but surely with a name like “fishing party” you know they’re not going to be going hard on climate change! I think they’ve been sold a pup – FP has Glen (?) Drury of Libs for Forests and Outdoor Recreation Fame – he’s a champion preferences negotiator, and once got Malcolm Jones into NSW Upper House with 0.2% of the vote!
Possum Comitatus said
So we’ve got one well organised microparty playing the rest for schmucks in preference negotiations, done by an old pro, and having a good bite of the cherry for the last spot from out of absolutely nowhere.
Gotta love the Senate!
Lomandra said
Josh Lyman (oooh, love that character!), it stinks to high heaven. Please see my post in the Weekend Open Thread on that subject.
Vogon Poet said
Does Antony Green really comment on this site? That’s pretty cool :p
josh lyman said
Although CCC has certainly done well in the prefs as well. If the fisherfolk don’t go so well, CCC could nab 6th on FF, Dems, CDP and then Greens prefs (even starting from 3%).
Kerry Nettle can’t win unless the ALP miss their 3rd seat, she gets a high primary and CCC polls badly (i.e. not likely).
I’ve generally tried to keep a left-right result between 52-55 vs 45-48, in line with current polling in HoR.
So, likely NSW results:
3-3 Lib-Lab
3-2-1 Lib-Lab-CCC
3-2-1 Lab-Lib-CCC
3-2-1 Lab-Lib-Fishing
George said
Hey Poss, sent you an excel spreadsheet – not sure if it got through your yahoo account.
George said
THE Coalition has continued its march back toward poll parity with the latest Newspoll showing the government now trailing by just six per cent in the two party preferred stakes.
Labor has dropped one point to 53 per cent while the Government has gained one point and moved to 47 per cent.
The preferred prime minister poll also shows encouraging signs for the Coalition, according to the Newspoll, to be published in The Australian tomorrow.
Prime Minister John Howard is up two percentage points to 43 while Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has dropped one to 47 per cent.
The gap in the primary vote poll has also narrowed, to just five per cent with Labor down one point to 47 and the Government steady at 42 per cent, according to figures broadcast on Sky News.
Burgey said
Poss,
What about the preferences in this Newspoll.
Galaxy comes out with 45% primary and 54% tpp. Newspoll gives us 47% primary yet a 53% tpp.
Preferences of “others (being 11%) have been distributed 6% to ALP, 5% to coalition.
That strikes me as a tad odd.
George said
Agree Burgey, I would stick with the primaries personally, which are unchanged and within the MoE.
Suspected Illegal Entry Vessel XI said
‘scuse me hignorance cap’n but when I hinterupted me game of northern beach cricket (on a deserted strand across the briny from Ashmore reef) and took a squiz at the Vic senate tickets I expected to see the Greens tickets with Labour in 2nd place as part of their preference deal, but ALP are down in the scuppers. Is the deal that labour is simply ahead of that bunch of superannuated cabin boys the Libs?
George said
Antony’s on Lateline – some real widsom on the latest newspoll: “not statistically significant”
adam said
hi all
thanks for the tip regards the senate calculator, poss, had fun playing about with it. given my recent trip, it was interesting seeing just how far nick xenophon might go… seems unlikely given the ticketing issues etc but if he pulled in his 20% he would drag another senator with him at 6th… interesting times. only needs around 8% to get his own place. certainly the SA upper house is one to watch – balance of power, anyone?
middle man said
“not statistically significant” – Antony Green
Why’s that? Small sample??
George said
sorry middle man, I wasn’t clear there – he meant it in terms of the “movement” from the previous newspoll
middle man said
oh ok. Thanks. Newspoll seem to be getting a bit on the nose around the place anyhow… it’s odd how a bad series of numbers can really damage a polls reputation. Tough business. Poor ole Morgan doesn’t get much respect in the MSM.
Tad said
I’ve run a few scenarios on the NSW senate calculator where the Greens do a little worse than last time, Labor polls very well (better than the national average, as would be suggested by Newspoll state-by-states), the left-right split favours Labor more than the national average and the micros run similar to last time but a little squeezed and I keep getting the Liberty and Democracy Party in 6th after a tussle with the Greens. Are they the fallback for Glen Drury if the Fishers don’t come through?
Stephen Tardrew said
Could some of you stats doods gives us plebs some percentages to slot into Anton’s Senate Calculator: even a variety of opinions would help.
Stilgherrian · For fuck’s sake, can we vote yet? said
[…] Today Possums Pollytics punches the last 14 polls into Antony’s election calculator — and gets a clear win for Labor every time. […]
Peachy said
Shame about the ‘Fishing Party’, I’m a mad keen fly fisherman myself, and I am deeply concerned with environmental issues and climate change, as are many other keen fisherman that I know. Fishing has changed a lot in the last 10-20 years, the ‘rape and pillage’ mentality just isn’t out there much any more, the norm these days is catch and release, or keep only what you will eat (personally i catch and release).
There are exceptions of course, but i don’t think that fisho’s in general are the bunch of right-wing slash-and-burn climate change deniers that the ‘Fishing Party’ seems to represent. Certainly fishermen are deeply concerned about dwindling fish stocks due to – you guessed it – environmental issues and over-fishing by the commercial sector. Personally I see green issues and recreational fishing issues as being closely aligned in many ways, the major sticking point for fishos is the marine parks, and the feeling that they are being locked out of areas that they previously fished sustainably. There is also frustration on the other hand that commercial fisherman seem to be given a far higher priority in decision making by government than the recreational sector, and that rec fishos are being locked out of areas because of overfishing by the pros.
It’s a shame that the Fishing Party seems to be just a partisan front for the Libs rather than a true independent party. Certainly won’t be getting my vote!