If you have any poo – fling it now
Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 20, 2007
I was wondering when it would come to this.
Forget the usual suspects talking about the closeness of the election result, when a party pulls a high risk play like alleging 13 Labor candidates are ineligible to stand for Parliament, and foreshadow legal challenges after the election – you know things are looking bleak.
Sour grapes do not play well with the electorate, threatening to bring in lawyers to try and overturn the election result looks bitter. Not accepting the umpires decision, and threatening to take your bat and ball and go home looks pathetic.
This action reinforces every negative perception that’s been plaguing the Coalition for years – you would truly have to be in a desperate political position to even consider doing such a thing.
If the contest really was coming down to a seat by seat battle in the marginals as some of the Coalition spruikers have been prattling on with lately, this announcement would simply have never been made. The big danger of acting like a bunch of monkeys is the electorate tends to start treating you that way.
If the order from Coalition central is “if you have any poo – fling it now”, what additions to the fecal framing can we expect over the next few days?
Possums Pollytics 
Ringtail said
Well, it might just work on some voters who would think ah, why vote for the Labor candidate if there’s a question mark hanging over his/her nomniation? This whole week is about scaring voters back into the fold, so anything goes.
Peter said
Well, political advertising isn’t allowed in the last few days, so I wonder if this is how the Coalition intend to operate for the last half of the week – via “news” stories.
It’s going to be interesting to see if there’s any evidence produced to back these claims up.
J. McPherson said
trying to steal government has worked for them before – remember the dismissal? Sure the people should be infuriated by this one but then again they should have been incensed at the dismissal yet voted them in. This is the liberals desperate hope.
John V K said
Rudd can turn it and play it.
All he says our nominations are in order and accusations should be made in writing to the AEC now, not politicise the AEC as a part of a defensive political stance, unless he has problems. Put up or shut up and stop using the AEC as a football.
They would be left stranded and be in the dobbing chair.
flute said
Just ran a slide rule over it, and even it is isn’t a load of bollocks, it will effect bugger all
Moondark said
This happened to Phil Cleary when he stood as an Independent for Wills in a by-election.
His election was subsequently declared void by the High Court on the grounds that he held an office
of profit under the Crown at the time. No further by-election was held because of the proximity of the 1993 general election. He won again at the 1993 General election. Don’t know if his primary vote went up though.
mb said
Here’s something I thought was interesting (I was doing up my own pendulum for me to tick off on election night as seats fell. This is going to be the most fun I’ve had without leaving my loungeroom!).
Polls are indicating a swing to Labor of something between 6% – 83 seats – and 8% – 94 seats. Of the 11 seats between these two points, 8 – yes EIGHT – are ministers or parliamentary secretaries.
So a swing of 8% to Labor would be all the more devastating to the government not just because of the number of seats lost, but also because of the lost of front bench “talent” (I use the term liberally to describe that lot).
It will mean, in future elections, Labor will be more able to run with the ‘no experience’ tag – because so few remaining members of the Liberal/National Parties will have ministerial experience if Labor can mange an 8% swing.
Bwah-hahaha! Possum, I hope you are right with your 55.15% regression!
adogge said
What actually are the “soiled 13” sins?
Hotlips said
paull said
The others are: Tony Zappia (Makin, SA), Yvette D’ath (Petrie, Qld), Peter Conway (ACT senate), Shayne Neumann (Blair, Qld), Garry Parr (Hinkler, Qld), Alan Neilan (Kennedy, Qld), Sharon Thiel (Kalgoorlie, WA), Belinda Neil (Robertson, NSW), Mark Buttugieg (Cook, NSW), Ross Daniels (Ryan, Qld), Mark Reynolds (Tangney, WA).
wentworth and McEwan
flute said
It’s a pathetic move, it won’t go down well, and roll on 4 more sleeps.
Beach Ball said
When desperate times call for desperate measures, will the Libs try and tar people with a tainted brush; ie, what Federal ALP candidate/MP has close links to former NSW Minister Milton Orkopolous?
Libs very very desperate: Daily Flute said
[…] Week continues, and Possum reckons there’s more shit flinging to […]
Martin said
Abbott just said “good luck” to Speers at the end of an interview on Sky’s Agenda – they know it’s over
popper said
I’ve been reading this forum for the past week or so. It has helped to keep me sane. This “13 candidates are ineligible” stratagem is the 666th last straw for me from this corrupt government (to paraphrase Orwell, the future is a boot stamping on one’s face). Hopefully this tactic will get no traction, and indeed will backfire. But I find myself thinking that even if Labor gets up on Saturday (O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!), it is still the case that about 2 in every 5 of my countryfolk will have voted for those worthless sacks of sh#t. (A friend tells me to be grateful that the figure is so low. According to his estimation, in any group at least 80% might be expected to be f#ckwits. I can’t say this soothes me much.) Anyway, looking past Saturday’s (hopefully) good result, it’s all quite dreary, really. It’s no way to live. Need to find a remote lighthouse that is For Sale….
follow the preferences said
The local Liberal candidate told me weeks ago that he was very bitter that the Party had made him resign from absolutely every board, consultancy etc that he was on. He didn’t understand as some had absolutely nothing to do with the crown. Maybe they have been working on this from a long way out, they are absolutely desperate, can they honestly think that this is going to have anything other than an absolute backfire effect. They are reinforcing the very things that are annoying people. Shame on their house.
paull said
I know it was from a long time ago but does New York Yacht Club come to mind when you read this sort of thing
KeepingALidOnIt said
From the reporting, all that I can see is that the LNP has collected together a list of 13 candidates who were previously public servants. That’s all. They have taken George Newhouse’s situation and then said that “it might be possible” that the other candidates are in the same situation. The legal advice appears to pertain to the question of whether a by-election would have to be held if a candidate were found to have failed to resign in time. Well derrrr. We knew that a by-election was an inevitable result of such a finding.
See how slippery this is? No proof, just an assertion that they were public servants, therefore they may be in the same situation as the dill in Wentworth. They don’t actually have the proof at present that those 13 candidates have failed to resign. So they are now being forced to come out and say they are okay, thereby distracting us from the IR referendum (oops sorry the election).
KeepingALidOnIt said
orry that last sentence should read: So [the candidtaes] are now being forced to come out and say they are okay, thereby distracting us from the IR referendum (oops sorry the election).
tdt said
Labor’s campaign spokesman Penny Wong was just quoted on ABC local radio Sydney, saying there is no substance to this at all and it’s just another desperate smear by the coalition
Jim said
God I hope it backfires. From the better part of the comments on news.com.au (that pillar of enlightened opinion) it would seem that it has. Early days yet..
wilful said
Well there was one thing in the news statement – I just discovered Rob Mitchell is running for Fran Bailey’s outer Melbourne/rural seat of McEwen. Now Rob is a tip-top lovely bloke with a heart of gold, but pig ignorant and really pretty thick. Of course I’d have to vote against the awful harridan Fran if I got the choice, but jeez I wish they’d find a better candidate.
KeepingALidOnIt said
Wilful, Rob Mitchell was just on ABC 774 saying no, he resigned in October.
This will backfire, because now the media are giving each of the 13 candidates time to come out and say – “nope, i’m okay, and by the way, this is just a distraction from [insert ALP issue du jour]” So otherwise undistinguished candidates are getting media time – silly when the LNP only have a day or so of advertising time left.
KeepingALidOnIt said
And yes, wilful, he did sound a bit sloooow.
dkindon said
Labor has denied all accusations http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22790836-661,00.html
Nick said
Wilful @ 22 – I know how you feel, I’m in McEwen and would dearly love to see Fran Freeloader given the boot, but Rob Mitchell is a pretty uninspiring alternative, and he’s had a pretty low campaign profile apart from the standard issue Kevin07 mailouts. If we had a Mia Handshin showing up Fran Bailey for the attention grabbing, pork barrelling cleaze that she is, things might be much more exciting.
Terber said
Let the Liberals tire themselves with all these silly games. I’m resting my arm for Saturday in Wakefield. My chainsaw has just been serviced. Let the massacre begin!
Stevo Melbourne said
The “Liberal” (a true misnomer) Grubs will stop at nothing to save themselves from oblivion. Can’t wait to baseball bat them on Saturday. BTW I am an inner city professional, conservative in many ways, ie should be a ‘natural’ Lib voter….the fact they have lost lots like me shows how far right they have gone, and they have given up all pretence over the last 11 years of belief in the rule of law.
steve said
More Liberal Dirty Tricks exposed. This time they have stolen the slogan ‘Your Rights at work’ for their ads in Tasmania.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/aec-investigating-proliberal-ads-in-tas/20071120-1bl3.html
flute said
KeepingLid thingo, that is a damn fine point. Most of those ALP schmos are in safe Liberal seats and you wouldn’t hear shit from them. Now they get free press for fuck all!
Kramer said
I think flute has a good point. Most of these candidates are in safe Liberal seats, with the exception of Newhouse. Most of the reports regarding Labor’s response actually contain dates, and it’s clear that most of these candidates had retired well before November 2.
I’m sure this won’t stop News Ltd from splashing this lie all over their papers tomorrow. Personally I’ve switched off from the election campaign. I’ve stopped watching the nightly news bulletins. I only read this blog and have quick looks at the websites.
I’m sure much of the public are like me. People just want this rubbish to be over and done with.
Foxy said
This will be the Libs equivalent of the Latham handsake – they’ve written their own death warrant.
Rod said
Given that Fran Bailey in McEwen scores almost a full page in a huge footnote in the Auditor General’s report you’d think she might just be a little wary about getting too close to muck raking. I wonder if anyone has taken a good hard look at her business activities lately? Its a real pity the Trade Practices Act doesn’t apply to political advertising, too, given her proclivity for making claims about having been responsible for just about every dollar from local, state or federal government that arrives in the area.
For example, Bailey drew a lot of anger in my own local community when she claimed credit during her 2004 campaign for the rebuilding of Hurstbridge Primary School after it was burnt down (it was actually rebuilt by the State government with major input from local community members) – see here
Cheers
Rod
JFC said
The Empire will fall.
John Howard’s ABC of Australia.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=0yfGLa9YcIY
Gezza said
Actually, Zappia is in a very marginal seat (Makin) & the soon to be ex-member is none other than Bob Day – you know the one who says he can’t see why apprentices shouldn’t be paid less than the minimum wage – just the sort of thing you’d expect from someone well known to the HR Nicholls Society.
Does anyone have a baseball bat they can lend me for when I go a votin’ over here in Boothby?
Our appalling member has been on a saturation mail out – one said our universities would be world class under the Rat Pack – this made me laugh out loud. Still expecting my begging letter from Mrs Southcott
Enemy Combatant said
“In what is likely to prove as a major embarrassment for Liberal Party campaign spokesman Andrew Robb,….”
Please allow me the indulgence of a brief burst of ad hominum. What a fuck*n slimebag is Andrew Robb! Fortunately, we have hand-counted and amiably scrutineered pencilled paper ballots. Could you imagine what Robb, Loughane and Nicholls Minchin would be doing if Oz had non-receipted, touch-computer voting as many US States now have? The born-to-rule brigade would brick ’emselves into Parliament House and declare Martial Law!
Our present electoral system has many shortcomings but none of them will ever lead to the Election Thefts of Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004.
All the bastards here have is their pork and propaganda with which to finesse less discerning voters.
On blogs like this, and a couple of other gooduns, their spin is deconstructed and dished back with interest. MSM smarties, coolies and desperates lurk constantly with intent. They pick up and run with the juicy bits. Party control-freaks can no longer control the message. Nor can shills, shock-jocks or talking heads. They can spritz it, but they can’t shape it for guaranteed rube-finessing results.
Unless Bogosphere Oz becomes subject to rigid censorship as in Singapore, allegedly to combat “home-grown terrorism”, or China………..
the zeitgeist is ours.
PASOK said
Just watched Proletariat news to see what the uninformed voter is being spoon-fed tonight.
All I heard about was the secret second wave of WorkChoices that has been suppressed under FOI restrictions, with Andrew Robb rebutted by Penny Wong as a minor footnote of the report.
gus said
News Ltd are really getting stuck in. Check the banner at the Tele “Cocky Kev’s Crew Ineligible” (http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/). Will be interesting to see how long they keep that up…
Burnt Karma said
Here’s the thing. I am greatly cheered by reading all this.
However, is this reflective of the population in general, or is it merely serving to reinforce my blinkered view of the world?
Are we in the majority or is it all going to end in tears?
People love voting for the winner, so if they think to themselves, “that shithead’s going to get back in again” does that mean they’ll vote for him anyway?
Bwahahahaha, it’s doing my head in. I’m starting to feel very, very tense.
Adam said
Howard: i tell you, what a masterstroke to give “teh orangutans” a big chunk of “teh ca$h” in an envelope marked “with love from me”. they are very good at flinging poo, i hear…
Turnbull: it’s gorillas who do that, actually, John. i saw it on discovery channel.
Howard: ***frosty silence***
Costello: d’oh!
Peter Kemp said
As I said over at Pollbludger in response to a comment about the LNP receiving legal advice:
The legal advice is based of course on the presumption that the candidate was working in an “office for profit” . It’s a no brainer. It’s the LNP’s Robb going on Mastermind with special subject “The Bleeding Obvious” in relation only to what the legislation says, backed up by case law, as the case may be.
As a practitioner myself, as I see it, I vehemently object to the political use of perfectly legitimate and absolutely correct advice which is then presented politically, using the imprimatur of a Senior Counsel, with an underlying, inherently disgraceful political insinuation, namely a presumption of guilt in an election period.
If they have the evidence, shoot. If not, shut up for decency’s sake.
Adam said
gus @ 38:
check out the comments though… wooooo. yo dolly, 20 from 22 homies got kev’s back. game up, liberal suckahs.
not a comment about the robb beat-up. says it all, really.
Lomandra said
Ever seen a politician self-immolating on air?
No?
Watch the video of Howard being interviewed by O’Brien tonight on 7.30 Report.
That was just bogglingly awful for the Coalition. Bogglingly.
Wingnut said
Lomandra @ 43
It was worth watching just for the finale – thanking Howard for all his time over the years – the Big Goodbye
Steve K said
O’Brien chopped him into little pieces and fed him to the studio dog. I have never ever seen such a demolition of an experienced public figure in my life. Costello would have loved it.
GS said
So if its a poo fest out there won’t there then be a few defecations – I mean defections – from backbenchers to save their skins?
Simon said
If these allegations have substance, I can’t see how this mud WON’T stick.
thesilverbodgie said
The Rodent looked every bit a tired old man tonight,he knows he is finished and as Steve said he was chopped to pieces.Kerry certainly went for the jugular.
Goodbye Mr Thatcher said
The swingers on Insight seem impressed with Rudd – a number said they were leaning heavily to Labor.
Orangutan said
Dear Possum
As a fellow member of the animal kingdom, may I place on record my sincere thanks for the $500,000 that your chief primate Howard has promised to my rainforest.
However, I don’t know why you land-monkeys are so fascinated by pork. Bananas are far more attractive to swinging voters in this neck of the woods.
While 500,000 bananas would’ve been more favourably received, we orangutans are philosophical creatures, which is why we always say “it’s the thought that counts”.
At any rate, please vote for chief primate Howard, as we need the money to help with guttering and drainage. It’s a jungle out here.
Liberals Rule, Ook!
Worried of Borneo
David Richards said
This is like Bathurst 1987 – a phony protest to give the bloke 6 laps down in third place the race.
Rod said
“WE will decide who can win the election in this country and the circumstances in which they do so”
(well, almost. The next one is for real, though!)
” It also named Queensland Nationals president Bruce Scott for failure to disclose interests in AWB and parliamentary secretary for health Christopher Pyne for failing to disclose an interest in Argo.
Mr Howard said he was satisfied Mr Cobb and Mr Downer had dealt with the issue. “As far as the ministers are concerned, everything is in order,” Mr Howard said. “Mr Downer has said that the shares were held through a blind trust.”
(from – http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howard-defends-mps-hidden-awb-shares/2006/03/12/1142098344432.html)
“Blind trust” is simply something that most Australians just don’t have for Coalition pre-election games these days.
John V K said
Post 50>
An endangered species, a lib supporter fire at will.
It’s all right they are only on a protection list in Sumatra and Java not Oz.
Nice with Fig and apple and the fur makes a nice sleeping bag.
Martin said
i hear John is now doing a frantic, last ditch ring around in a doomed attempt to land some last minute votes – and if he’s doing it in Fisher, it can only mean one thing: the rodent knows he’s toast
John V K said
No mercy Martin.
The Joker said
Anyone heard the rumour that no less than 27 Liberal candidates may be ineligible to stand?
kwoff.com said
If you have any poo – fling it now (negative tactics)« Possums Pollytics
Martin said
the big telcos must just love the rodent’s largesse…
Harry 'Snapper' Organs said
Well, it’s all gone tremendously well, the campaign and everything. Never seen such superlative strategy, so many finely nuanced, carefully considered tactical plays, such over arching vision for the future. Yep,let’s just fling faux poo.
Diana said
Our household is receiving mailouts from the Liberal incumbant, Louise Markus, everyday…and I didn’t think Greenway was supposed to fall to the ALP unless…well unless the annihilation happens! Another of those annoying Roy Morgan Reactor polls lobbed into my Inbox tonight. They are still focusing on that ‘is the country heading in the right direction’ question. I noticed that Howard was directing his pitch on the 7.30Report to the voters that pollsters identify as ‘soft Labor’ because we identify as intending to vote Labor but also believe ‘the country is heading in the right direction.’ The pollsters still don’t get that this question is meaningless – it assumes that the general population gives far more credence to politicians as far as creating ‘the direction’ of the country than is probably the case. I thnk I’m really going to enjoy Sat night.
Sir Henry Casingbroke said
Tony Abbott, desperate to retain Warringah, has today pledged $9 million to help refurbish Brookvale Oval after a week long campaign against him by rugby league supporters in his electorate. This is after two years of telling them it was a state matter. He must be worried even with 11% margin. Mmmmm, his behaviour of late has seemed a tad panicked.
Bruce said
Hi Diana @60
Were getting the same mail outs from Louise Markus. All in red and black and how Labor will be run by unions and wreck the economy. They go straight to the recycling. What a waste of money, paper and red and black ink!
I can’t wait until this election is over. I am starting to truly resent the Libs and their dirty tricks.
Bruce said
Also Diana @60,
I think many of the so-called undecided voters – soft Labor or whatever – can’t decide whether to vote Green or Independent or Labor, but they absolutely intend putting Labor ahead of the Coalition. Polls only ask if you might change your 1st preference not if you might change you 2 party preference.
Rod said
Phillip Adams has a nice piece in the Oz today (as long as you can survive the alliteration!):
“Falsehoods, fibs, fictions and frauds have been the fabric of the Howard years. A plethora of porkies had the pollies blaming flawed advice from the armed services or the bureaucrats or relying on the implausibility of plausible deniability.
Whether it was the AWB or WMDs or kids overboard, Howard has never hesitated to look Australia in the eye and lie.”
Read it all at:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22785000-7583,00.html
Gezza said
A question: I just saw a new add (to me anyway) pro-Govt. but by something called the Put Aust. First foundation. I couldn’t find a web site. Does anyone know which business group, Liberal fundraiser or right wing think tank is behind this group?
Oz Election at John Barrdear said
[…] suggesting that 13 Labor candidates may be inelligible to stand. I am entirely in agreement with The Possum on this one: “Sour grapes do not play well with the electorate, threatening to bring in […]
Rocket said
Diana (60) – Most people do believe the country is “heading in the right direction” – that is, straight to the polling booths on Saturday to get rid of this desperate bunch of liars. In fact the only question people are asking is “Are we there yet?”
Big Blind Dave said
Love the title Poss. Love all the lastest articles
Can I just say in reply
All hail the New York Giants
Evan said
Talk about desperate.
The band strikes-up Nearer My God To Thee and the Libs manfully don their life jackets and face their doom with that trademark Tory stiff upper-lip. At least, that’s the way it’s supposed to go at this juncture.
Unfortunately, things are not quite playing-out that way. Seems like there are nore than a few rotters in spats chucking the women out of the lifeboats and getting-in themselves.
SIEV XI said
Rod at 33, do you think this time you’ll get rid of that waste of space Fran Bailey? It’s a very interesting contest for Vic (up there with Corangamite for interest). What is the ‘vibe’ on the ground in Hurstbridge and surrounds like?
StingRat said
love it Martin @54 – memo Bill Leak – a rat on toast to go if you please – and btw you can get $4.20 for your dollar over at Centrebet on The Rodent nosing out the Ruddster in the last race on Saturday.
not.so.very.worried said
They got this information about 13 Labor candidates being in-eligible from their websites. So be afraid, be very afraid. If you don’t update your website every 5 minutes Andrew Robb and his pimply band of internet trolls will get ya!
anthony baxter said
Lomandra – good god, I almost felt sorry for Howard by the end. That’s one of the most brutal horsewhippings I’ve ever seen. “I was being ironic when I said education revolution”. That joins “non-core”, I think. “When I said I had no plans to build nuclear reactors, I was being ironic”.
Or the way Kezza stomped Howard’s backwards-focussed election campaign so hard that he Howard started begging him to talk about the future.
not.so.very.worried said
#7 [It will mean, in future elections, Labor will be more able to run with the ‘no experience’ tag – because so few remaining members of the Liberal/National Parties will have ministerial experience if Labor can mange an 8% swing.
Comment by mb — November 20, 2007 @ 3:18 pm ]
Not only that, but workchoices will be the gift that keeps on giving: Can u imagine the 2010/2011 election with Costello as opposition leader? The ALP election ads will be as follows: A vote for Costello is a vote for Workchoices Mark 2 !!!
SIEV XI said
Indeed 73, how can JWH think of using terms like ‘ironic’ in relation to policy statements that are on the record? His desperation is desperate, his panic is panicky, his remorse is unremorseful, and he’s as stuffed as a butcher’s puppy. His end game has been a rolled gold example of fucktardery (to pinch a Possism)
paull said
well it’s almost over, we all know who we are going to vote for let’s hope the rest do the right thing as well
the polls look good, the right is self destructing, terrorism and the sedition laws are the only thing they have left to play,
so I thought I would try to lighten it up a little
Does any one agree that David Speirs looks like Bert off Sesame Street
Stephen T said
Philip Adams says it all. He is tenacious and does not give up. Great article pulls no punches, says what every journalist has not had the guts to say openly. He has become a bit of a Gem the old bugga in a bag of dullards. And he knows how to write. He just ignores the rabid neocon baggers and keeps on keepin on.
Socrates said
I put this up at Bill’s site but it might interest:
The Smear is Dead!
Long Live the Backfire.
Just checked the AM editions up on line for Wednesday’s dailies and most are (correctly) reporting that there was no evidence to substantiate the Liberal’s inelligible candidate smear. Some are reporting the Labor supplied evidence that 11 of 12 candidates named (1 not able to be contacted) had resignation letters. Here are some headlines:
SMH “Dirty dozen smear”
Age “Candidate claim untrue”
and the right wing papers that will hurt most:
Australian: Libs flag wentworth legal challenge (refutation in fine print)
Herald Sun “Challenge Backfires on Liberals”
Courier Mail: “Labor Backlash – candidates eligibility defended”
Daily Telegraph: “PM Slam-dunked on leadership plan”
Advertiser: “Labor denies Liberal claims” then calls claim “an embarrassement”
only Perth has: “Court might decide election result” without detailing refutation
Bad news for Liberals in all papers. 3 days to go.
Ronin8317 said
Tampa, Mk II
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/navy-rescues-16-from-sinking-boat/2007/11/21/1195321814222.html
Things are going to get ugly.
steve said
From the most unreliable report writers in Australia’s History comes this unsurprising load of rubbish. Econtech has excelled it’s usual scary efforts.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/repealing-ir-laws-to-cost-12b–report/20071121-1bqq.html
john said
Hey Gezza is that the one with the dodo? I immediately tagged it as a liberal stooge ad to suck preferences and thought it said a lot about the coalition; stuck away in their own little egg protected from the grubby outside world and only coming out (some to play golf, such as Dolly Downer) at election time!
Potaroo said
The 13 candidates story is unstuck already. A quick check by the Herald Sun reveals the Libs did zilch research and their claims are a load of possy poo. By the way did anyone notice that Howard’s speech on the 7.30 report about how things will change is almost word for word for the one Keating gave in the eve of his 1996 Gotterdammerung. I love omens.
Potaroo said
he 13 candidates story is unstuck already. A quick check by the Herald Sun reveals the Libs did zilch research and their claims are a load of possy poo. By the way did anyone notice that Howard’s speech on the 7.30 report about how things will change is almost word for word for the one Keating gave in the eve of his 1996 Gotterdammerung. I love omens.
Comment by Potaroo — November 21, 2007 @ 8:03 am
George said
Paul Strangio (sp?) on 774 Radio saying exactly what Poss and others have been saying for yonks: there is no narrowing, no huge swing from undecided voters awaiting to give the coalition a fighting chance, obvious that the coalition is flat and giving up, and it’s all over.
George said
Sol now on also agreeing that the polls will not change between now and the election
Danny Yee said
Philip Adams is great. But what’s this nonsense “has killed thousands of Iraqis”? I’ve seen that in other places, but Adams should know better.
Our best estimate of the number of Iraqis that have died because of the invasion and occupation (over and above pre-invastion mortality rates) is from a study over a year ago, and that was nearly 700,000. See
http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2006/burnham_iraq_2006.html
“Thousands” is just woefully misleading.
barney said
Agree generally with the trust of your argument Poss but think the tactic (it’s hardly a strategy) behind this is to get voters in those seats to consider whether they should risk a by-election following the 24th. It’s a bit like the people of Bennelong thinking the govt is going down so why don’t we save ourselves the cost of a by-election when Howard resigns?
Like everything else they’ve tried it will fail dismally.
Roy said
The unflushable turd can’t find any rabbits in his hat so he’s resorted to pulling out rats.
hergs said
I was too young to remember the build up to the 1996 election, but was the feeling similar for Keating as it is now for Howard (i.e. that he was doomed)?
MG said
#79 – Hard to see how a wedge can be created out of this. Whoever the people are, they’ve already been taken into custody and will be dealt with according to laws already created. I can’t really see how this could become controversial at this point. Am I naive?
smssiva said
I found this, a reply to samantha maiden’s blog in Australian. I thought it was a nice analogy.
‘Watching Howard and Costello interviewed side by side on Today Tonight on Monday, I thought for a second I was watching the ABC comedy series Mother and Son. An episode I have not seen in which Howard plays the absent-minded but stubborn and shrewd Maggie trying to convince a sceptical new employer that subservient and submissive Arthur (played by Costello) is up to the job. Arthur does his utmost to please mum but as usual Maggie manipulates her boy to do her bidding and Arthur misses out on the job to remain tied to Mum’s apron forever. Arthur, I say Arthur… ‘
smssiva said
Possum,
What happened to the econometric models for perdicting election results? I am interested if Cameron & Crosby model predicts a labour win. Would you be able to enlighten me.
Stunkrat said
Any chance Barnaby gets his very own “Crimes” entry? Some of the crap he was spouting on Lateline last night was truly astounding.
JP said
I’m no fan of the Rodent, by any means, but I thought he did OK on the 7:30 report. I’m blessed with no TV reception, so I’ve just watched it on download, and from the comments above, I thought Kerry had really made him squirm.
Sure Howard took a few hits (unsurprising since nearly all the criticisms of his government are entirely warranted), but O’Brien didn’t follow through on his comment that ethics were a greater measure of a government than economic success, didn’t ask how many of the 430,000 jobs “created by Workchoices” would have been created anyway under the pre-2006 IR laws, didn’t even go near the ethical disasters of AWB or the sedition laws.
I thought the interview was predictable, and actually Howard was treated with kid gloves – presumably because the ABC didn’t want too obvious a contrast in approach with tonight’s Rudd interview.
I thought Howard’s two worst moments were echoing Keating’s (very true) pre-annihilation comment that if you change the government you change the country, and reminding swinging voters that Rudd had (shock, horror) opposed the GST, Workchoices, and the Telstra sale. I couldn’t have scripted a better example of “out of touch”.
PASOK said
Barnaby Joyce claimed that not ALL polls are against the LNP – he professed his belief in phone and SMS polls run by 7, 9 & Sky.
Maybe the Libs will win Aus Idol instead?
He’s not the sharpest tool in the shed, is old Barbs.
JP, Howard did okay? He was smacked all around the ring. You know Johnnie is uncomfortable when he starts humming/murmuring/gruntng to himself when Kerry talks, and he did a lot of it.
Kerry could have brought up JWH’s opposition to Super, or Malcolm Fraser’s assertions about his Treasurer and lack of reforms, or pointed out that 51% of Australia also opposed GST. JWH is lucky it was only a half hour interview. A proper interview to grill him over his 11 year reign of terror would take hours.
I watched it again last night, so entertaned by it was I.
Graham H said
What would be the worst outcome for Australia on the 24th November? A liberal victory by one seat.
Howard would be mortally wounded and would have no option but to step down, probably by March 2008. He would then withdraw to the backbench, a bitter old man too scared to resign (because his seat would fall to Labor), no longer loved by his Party who saw him as the person so seduced by power that he could not give it up.
At a time when the country desperately wants some long term planning, we have a weak Goverment focused on the short term electoral cycle.
Will Costello be the leader – I doubt it.It will go to Turnbull if he survives, because he will probably be the only person left with any credibility with the electorate.
I think a lot of Australians are going to think about this kind of scenario in the next couple of days and decide that the real risk is to try and preserve an era that is now past, or move ahead with a new Government that can tackle the keey issues.
Thunk Different. said
What is the little fellers name?
PC07 said
The Coalition are desperate, they have run a negative campaign from the beginning, offering the electorate nothing new or positive.
The union scare campaign is ridiculous, the majority of political commentators have acknowledged this.
If Labor does not win this election, then under PM Costello in the next election, no Coalition seat will be safe.
jethro said
There was an article about the Newhouse ineligibility shenanigans in today’s Financial Review, which suggested, should Newhouse win and be found ineligible, that Turnball could petition the courts not to conduct a by-election as a remedy, but a recount with Newhouse’s votes discarded.
But to do this, Turnball would need to argue that the potential ineligibility of Newhouse was reasonably communicated to electors before the election.
So maybe that’s the thinking here — seek a recount (with the ALP candidate removed altogether) rather than risk a by-election (which is generally thought to increase the original winner’s majority).
Rod said
Things must be getting tight in McEwen. I’ve just received three separate pieces of junk mail promoting either Fran Bailey or the Libs this morning. Most days we’ve only been getting one.
One of today’s is a 12 page colour “booklet”, completely lacking any authorisation or identification information. It is a “double ender” – with the heading “The Consequences” on one end paper and “The Liberals’ ‘Pro-Growth ‘ 9 point Plan” on the other. Inside is the usual blather about the threat of unions etc
It clearly contravenes the Electoral laws, given the complete absence of identification of the authors / authorisers etc.
I presume it has arrived now because it is now too late to take any action against whoever produced it prior to the election.
Are people in other electorates receiving this publication, also? Anyone know if has any relationship to a certain extremist religious group?
steve said
More Lib dirty tricks.
A GROUP of Liberal Party supporters has been kicked off the campaign for handing out flyers purporting to be from an Islamic group calling on people to vote Labor in western Sydney.
Liberal Party NSW director Graham Jaeschke said he became aware of the incident at St Marys in the marginal Sydney seat of Lindsay last night, after Labor members raised the alert.
Four or five people were involved in the incident, two of whom were Liberal Party members.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22797758-5001028,00.html
Rod said
And now we have the story on PM that Liberal Party assistants have been caught handing out fake pamphlets ostensibly from the Labor Party urging Muslims to vote Labor! Needless to say, the pamphlets were, in reality, aimed at non-Muslim voters, trading on assumptions about the racism of the wider population.
The NSW branch of the Libs, given that those responsible have been caught red handed, have apparently accepted that this has, indeed, occurred and that they are planning on “taking action” against those of their members who were involved.
Ah, they really have a way with them, the Libs, when things are going bad! Bring out the religious weirdos, trade on racism and then say its all “nothing to do with us , really”.
I reckon there will be more than a few volunteers wanting to lock down the lid when this sorry mob get shoved in the garbage bin of Australian history on the weekend!
Socrates said
Rod
Those pamphletts have been distributed in several electorates, all obviously perceived to be at risk. We got it in Sturt on Monday.
Rod said
Any sign of any endorsement on yours, Socrates?
I’m finding myself wondering whether they come from a) the Exclusive Breth or b) the Libs themselves, imagining that everyone will attribute them to the Exclusive Breth until it is too late for it to matter.
Cheers
Rod
Dave Humphries said
Check out this link
They are getting very Machiavellian in Lyndsay
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2097414.htm?section=justin
Rod said
The transcript of ABC PM’s more comprehensive coverage of the Lib members latest little racist dirty trick in Lyndsay isn’t available yet, Dave, but you can hear the program and relevant piece at http://www.abc.net.au/pm/
Rod said
The ABC PM transcript on the Lyndsay Libs dirty tricks campaign is now available at http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2097382.htm
Cheers
Rod
Beach Ball said
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2097484.htm?section=justin
The libs did this in Blacktown in the old areas of Greenway (pre redistributed boundaries). The Libs denied that they had anything to do with it, but they have form, now they’ve been caught and it involves the multi millionaire husband of a retiring MP.
Absolute disgrace and they should be prosecuted to the full length of the law.
steve said
The Exclusive Brethren have upset a business in Burnie by using the address as part of an authorisation on an anti Green attack.
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,22801668-3462,00.html
Maurine said
Yes! Finally someone writes about gals.